North Carolina 0–0 Charleston Battery

North Carolina

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Charleston Battery

3/10/2024

USL Championship · Round 1WakeMed Soccer Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

North Carolina48%

×Draw24%

Charleston Battery28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

North CarolinaExpected goals in this matchCharleston Battery

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.25

North Carolina

1.72

Charleston Battery

1.25

North Carolina creates 38% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 134 away

1.83

creates per match

1.26

1.23

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

North Carolina

1.83

Charleston Battery

1.26

allows per match

North Carolina

1.23

Charleston Battery

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

North Carolina+0.00on par

Charleston Battery+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Carolina ↓

Charleston Battery →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

North Carolina or draw

72%

North Carolina or Charleston Battery

76%

Draw or Charleston Battery

52%

Winning margin

North Carolina wins by 2+

26%

Charleston Battery wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

North Carolina 1+ goals

82%

North Carolina 2+ goals

51%

North Carolina 3+ goals

25%

Charleston Battery 1+ goals

71%

Charleston Battery 2+ goals

36%

Charleston Battery 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

North Carolina (draw refunded)

63%

Charleston Battery (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Carolina at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.23 · 77 matches

Charleston Battery away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.60 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Carolina attack 1.83 + Charleston Battery defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.72

Charleston Battery attack 1.26 + North Carolina defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

North Carolina scores more

48%

level

24%

Charleston Battery scores more

28%

North Carolina at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "North Carolina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff