North Carolina vs Charleston Battery — Friendlies Clubs 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 3+ matches
North Carolina45%
Charleston Battery30%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
North Carolina creates 28% more chances
Season form · 3 home / 4 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under50
- Over50
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes54
- No46
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
North Carolina ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
North Carolina at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches
Charleston Battery away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
North Carolina attack 1.00 + Charleston Battery defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50
Charleston Battery attack 1.00 + North Carolina defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 45%?"
North Carolina at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 45% does not mean "North Carolina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
North Carolina host Charleston Battery on Friday, 30 April 2021 at 18:30. The match is part of the Friendlies Clubs 2026/2027 season.
Friendlies Clubs: North Carolina 2–1 Charleston Battery
North Carolina beat Charleston Battery 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on April 30, 2021.
The match was played at WakeMed Soccer Park in Cary, North Carolina.