Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Charleston Battery vs North Carolina — USL Championship 2026

Charleston Battery
Charleston Battery
FT
5 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
North Carolina
North Carolina
6/28/2024USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 19Patriots Point

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Charleston Battery48%
×Draw24%
North Carolina28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Charleston Battery
1.64
North Carolina
1.19

Charleston Battery creates 38% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 74 away

creates per match

Charleston Battery
1.89
North Carolina
1.24

allows per match

Charleston Battery
1.15
North Carolina
1.39

finishing

Charleston Battery+0.00on par
North Carolina+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charleston Battery ↓

North Carolina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Charleston Battery or draw
72%
Charleston Battery or North Carolina
76%
Draw or North Carolina
52%

Winning margin

Charleston Battery wins by 2+
25%
North Carolina wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Charleston Battery 1+ goals
81%
Charleston Battery 2+ goals
49%
Charleston Battery 3+ goals
23%
North Carolina 1+ goals
70%
North Carolina 2+ goals
33%
North Carolina 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Charleston Battery (draw refunded)
63%
North Carolina (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charleston Battery at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.15 · 137 matches

North Carolina away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.39 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charleston Battery attack 1.89 + North Carolina defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.64

North Carolina attack 1.24 + Charleston Battery defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Charleston Battery scores more
48%
level
24%
North Carolina scores more
28%

Charleston Battery at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Charleston Battery will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Charleston Battery vs North Carolina

Charleston Battery beat North Carolina 5-2 in USL Championship on June 28, 2024.

The match was played at Patriots Point in Mount Pleasant, South Carolina.