Norrköping W vs AIK W: Preview & Prediction

Norrköping W

Preview

13:00

AIK W

11/15/2026

Damallsvenskan · Round 26Norrkopings Idrottspark

Big match

52%

Norrköping W

model favours

52%24%24%

Norrköping W score first in only 25% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

54%

over 2.5 goals

55%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Norrköping W52%

×Draw24%

AIK W24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Norrköping WExpected goals in this matchAIK W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.10

Norrköping W

1.74

AIK W

1.10

Norrköping W creates 58% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 56 away

1.07

creates per match

0.98

1.22

allows per match

2.41

creates per match

Norrköping W

1.07

AIK W

0.98

allows per match

Norrköping W

1.22

AIK W

2.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Norrköping W+0.00on par

AIK W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norrköping W ↓

AIK W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Norrköping W or draw

76%

Norrköping W or AIK W

76%

Draw or AIK W

48%

Winning margin

Norrköping W wins by 2+

29%

AIK W wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Norrköping W 1+ goals

82%

Norrköping W 2+ goals

52%

Norrköping W 3+ goals

25%

AIK W 1+ goals

67%

AIK W 2+ goals

30%

AIK W 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Norrköping W (draw refunded)

69%

AIK W (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norrköping W at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.22 · 45 matches

AIK W away — creates 0.98, concedes 2.41 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norrköping W attack 1.07 + AIK W defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.74

AIK W attack 0.98 + Norrköping W defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Norrköping W scores more

52%

level

24%

AIK W scores more

24%

Norrköping W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Norrköping W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Norrköping W win just 20% against the top half (vs 50% against the bottom)
Style contrast — Norrköping W play Defensively solid, AIK W Direct / counter-attacking

Based on historical data — not a prediction.