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AIK W vs Norrköping W — Damallsvenskan 2020

AIK W
AIK W
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Norrköping W
Norrköping W
N. Selin 3'
3/28/2026DamallsvenskanDamallsvenskan · Round 1Skytteholms IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

AIK W33%
×Draw25%
Norrköping W42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AIK W
1.27
Norrköping W
1.48

Norrköping W creates 17% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 44 away

creates per match

AIK W
1.21
Norrköping W
1.30

allows per match

AIK W
1.65
Norrköping W
1.32

finishing

AIK W+0.00on par
Norrköping W+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AIK W ↓

Norrköping W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

AIK W or draw
58%
AIK W or Norrköping W
75%
Draw or Norrköping W
67%

Winning margin

AIK W wins by 2+
14%
Norrköping W wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

AIK W 1+ goals
72%
AIK W 2+ goals
36%
AIK W 3+ goals
14%
Norrköping W 1+ goals
77%
Norrköping W 2+ goals
43%
Norrköping W 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

AIK W (draw refunded)
44%
Norrköping W (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AIK W at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.65 · 57 matches

Norrköping W away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.32 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AIK W attack 1.21 + Norrköping W defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.27

Norrköping W attack 1.30 + AIK W defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

AIK W scores more
33%
level
25%
Norrköping W scores more
42%

Norrköping W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Norrköping W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
E. DannbackAIK WAIK W · G
8.0

Match Events

3'
N. Selin↳ L. Sembrant
32'
Anna Oskarsson
43'
Deborah-Anne De La Harpe
51'
Lisa Björk
54'
A. Bogucka← L. Bjork
59'
Daniella Famili
65'
A. H. Ekberg← I. Sibley
65'
S. E. Bardardottir← B. Persson
70'
J. Nordin← O. Garcia
88'
I. Bjornberg← N. Selin
88'
M. Plan← O. Lindstedt
89'
K. MacBean← E. Engstrom

Possession

45%AIK

Shots

13AIK

Pass accuracy

50%AIK

Statistics

AIKNorrköping
Overview
45%Possession55%
13Total Shots9
0.70Expected Goals (xG)0.96
5Corners6
14Fouls12
Shots
13Total Shots9
4On Target3
4Off Target3
5Blocked3
4Inside Box5
9Outside Box4
Passing
45%Possession55%
286Total Passes352
212Accurate Passes262
74%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
14Fouls12
3Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
1Offsides0

Match Recap: AIK W vs Norrköping W

AIK W beat Norrköping W 1-0 in Damallsvenskan on March 28, 2026.

Goals: N. Selin (3').

Norrköping W controlled possession (55%) and registered 9 shots to 13.

The match was played at Skytteholms IP in Solna.