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AIK W vs Norrköping W — Damallsvenskan 2020

AIK W
AIK W
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
Norrköping W
Norrköping W
P. Fischerová 55'
E. Reidy 23'
S. Fornes 44', 31'
B. Olsson 1' (OG)
5/4/2024DamallsvenskanDamallsvenskan · Round 4Skytteholms IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

AIK W33%
×Draw25%
Norrköping W42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AIK W
1.27
Norrköping W
1.48

Norrköping W creates 17% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 44 away

creates per match

AIK W
1.21
Norrköping W
1.30

allows per match

AIK W
1.65
Norrköping W
1.32

finishing

AIK W+0.00on par
Norrköping W+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AIK W ↓

Norrköping W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

AIK W or draw
58%
AIK W or Norrköping W
75%
Draw or Norrköping W
67%

Winning margin

AIK W wins by 2+
14%
Norrköping W wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

AIK W 1+ goals
72%
AIK W 2+ goals
36%
AIK W 3+ goals
14%
Norrköping W 1+ goals
77%
Norrköping W 2+ goals
43%
Norrköping W 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

AIK W (draw refunded)
44%
Norrköping W (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AIK W at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.65 · 57 matches

Norrköping W away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.32 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AIK W attack 1.21 + Norrköping W defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.27

Norrköping W attack 1.30 + AIK W defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

AIK W scores more
33%
level
25%
Norrköping W scores more
42%

Norrköping W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Norrköping W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
S. FornesNorrköping WNorrköping W · F
8.7

Match Events

1'
B. OlssonOwn goal
23'
E. Reidy
29'
Samantha Cary
31'
S. Fornes
39'
S. Ravnell← A. Hellekant
44'
S. Fornes
46'
A. Svensson← E. Schampi
46'
V. Dahlqvist← B. Olsson
55'
P. Fischerová
59'
Elin Rombing
65'
M. Rojas Flores← E. Reidy
72'
J. Egeriis← W. Leidhammar
72'
M. Wiklander← E. Rombing
72'
V. Veber← D. Leskinen
74'
N. Jakobsson← D. Famili
74'
E. Engström← M. Hagström
85'
Adelisa Grabus

Possession

61%AIK

Shots

12AIK

Pass accuracy

54%AIK

Statistics

AIKNorrköping
Overview
61%Possession39%
12Total Shots9
1.39Expected Goals (xG)1.17
5Corners2
14Fouls9
Shots
12Total Shots9
5On Target3
3Off Target1
3Blocked3
9Inside Box4
3Outside Box5
Passing
61%Possession39%
520Total Passes266
409Accurate Passes179
79%Pass Accuracy67%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
14Fouls9
1Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
2Offsides2

Damallsvenskan: AIK W 2–3 Norrköping W

Norrköping W beat AIK W 3-2 in Damallsvenskan on May 4, 2024.

Goals: B. Olsson (1' o.g.), E. Reidy (23'), S. Fornes (31', 44'), P. Fischerová (55').

AIK W controlled possession (61%) and registered 12 shots to 9.

The match was played at Skytteholms IP in Solna.