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Norrby IF vs IK brage — Superettan 2026

Norrby IF
Norrby IF
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
IK brage
IK brage
A. Sporrong 79'
4/5/2026SuperettanSuperettan · Round 1Borås Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Norrby IF40%
×Draw26%
IK brage35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Norrby IF
1.40
IK brage
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 82 home / 127 away

creates per match

Norrby IF
1.38
IK brage
1.30

allows per match

Norrby IF
1.29
IK brage
1.43

finishing

Norrby IF+0.00on par
IK brage+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norrby IF ↓

IK brage →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Norrby IF or draw
65%
Norrby IF or IK brage
74%
Draw or IK brage
60%

Winning margin

Norrby IF wins by 2+
18%
IK brage wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Norrby IF 1+ goals
75%
Norrby IF 2+ goals
41%
Norrby IF 3+ goals
17%
IK brage 1+ goals
72%
IK brage 2+ goals
37%
IK brage 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Norrby IF (draw refunded)
53%
IK brage (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norrby IF at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.29 · 82 matches

IK brage away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.43 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norrby IF attack 1.38 + IK brage defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.40

IK brage attack 1.30 + Norrby IF defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Norrby IF scores more
40%
level
26%
IK brage scores more
35%

Norrby IF at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Norrby IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
A. ZetterstromIK brageIK brage · D
7.9

Match Events

51'
Filip Gustafsson
56'
Joel Hjalmar
59'
G. Nordh← A. Lundin
66'
P. Jonsson← F. Trpcevski
70'
M. Back Engstrom← K. Liimatainen
78'
Filip Gustafsson
78'
Filip Gustafsson
79'
A. Sporrong↳ A. Zetterstrom
81'
C. Axede← J. Johansson
86'
O. Backlund← A. Nedzibovic
90'
Gustav Berggren
90'
M. Persson← G. Granstrom

Possession

46%Norrby

Shots

9Norrby

Pass accuracy

48%Norrby

Statistics

NorrbyIK
Overview
46%Possession54%
9Total Shots10
0.33Expected Goals (xG)1.55
4Corners2
14Fouls14
Shots
9Total Shots10
2On Target2
5Off Target7
2Blocked1
3Inside Box8
6Outside Box2
Passing
46%Possession54%
305Total Passes419
214Accurate Passes322
70%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
14Fouls14
2Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards0
3Offsides1

Superettan: Norrby IF 0–1 IK brage

IK brage beat Norrby IF 1-0 in Superettan on April 5, 2026.

Goals: A. Sporrong (79').

IK brage controlled possession (54%) and registered 10 shots to 9.

The match was played at Borås Arena in Boras.