IK brage 5–0 Norrby IF: Result & Stats

IK brage

FT

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Norrby IF

D. Karlberg 90+1'

E. Tot Wikström 50'

K. Appiah Nyarko 37', 19'

P. Jonsson 7'

3/5/2023

Svenska Cupen · Group Stage - 3Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

IK brage65%

×Draw23%

Norrby IF12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IK brageExpected goals in this matchNorrby IF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

0.60

IK brage

1.73

Norrby IF

0.60

IK brage creates 188% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

1.71

creates per match

0.50

0.71

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

IK brage

1.71

Norrby IF

0.50

allows per match

IK brage

0.71

Norrby IF

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IK brage+0.00on par

Norrby IF+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IK brage ↓

Norrby IF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

IK brage or draw

88%

IK brage or Norrby IF

77%

Draw or Norrby IF

35%

Winning margin

IK brage wins by 2+

37%

Norrby IF wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

IK brage 1+ goals

82%

IK brage 2+ goals

52%

IK brage 3+ goals

25%

Norrby IF 1+ goals

45%

Norrby IF 2+ goals

12%

Norrby IF 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

IK brage (draw refunded)

84%

Norrby IF (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IK brage at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Norrby IF away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IK brage attack 1.71 + Norrby IF defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.73

Norrby IF attack 0.50 + IK brage defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

IK brage scores more

65%

level

23%

Norrby IF scores more

12%

IK brage at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "IK brage will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

P. Jonsson

19'

K. Appiah Nyarko

28'

E. Tot Wikström← S. Izountouemoi

37'

K. Appiah Nyarko

45+1'

A. Wede

50'

E. Tot Wikström

58'

D. Karlberg← P. Rödin

58'

Y. Hawat← K. Appiah Nyarko

58'

A. Warneryd← A. Pärleholt

58'

M. Andersson← N. Osmanagic

58'

T. Helge← S. Bosnic

66'

V. Astor

70'

O. Gustafsson← H. Meja

70'

V. Svendsén← A. Salo

78'

G. Berggren← Ieltsin Camões

84'

F. Sjoberg

90+1'

D. Karlberg

IK

Norrby

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽2

▼

Nyarko

▼

Camões

Manager: K. Saarenpää

28'▲E. Tot Wikström←▼S. Izountouemoi

58'▲D. Karlberg←▼P. Rödin

58'▲Y. Hawat←▼K. Appiah Nyarko

78'▲G. Berggren←▼Ieltsin Camões

IK brage substitutes

WikströmKarlbergHawatBerggrenTamimiPerssonFrodig

Manager: J. Swedlund

58'▲A. Warneryd←▼A. Pärleholt

58'▲M. Andersson←▼N. Osmanagic

58'▲T. Helge←▼S. Bosnic

70'▲O. Gustafsson←▼H. Meja

70'▲V. Svendsén←▼A. Salo

Norrby IF substitutes

WarnerydAnderssonHelgeGustafssonSvendsénMcIntyre

Svenska Cupen: IK brage 5–0 Norrby IF

IK brage beat Norrby IF 5-0 in Svenska Cupen on March 5, 2023.

Goals: P. Jonsson (7'), K. Appiah Nyarko (19', 37'), E. Tot Wikström (50'), D. Karlberg (90+1').

The match was played at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen in Borlänge.

IK brage vs Norrby IF — Svenska Cupen 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Svenska Cupen: IK brage 5–0 Norrby IF