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IK brage vs Norrby IF — Superettan 2026

IK brage
IK brage
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Norrby IF
Norrby IF
5/28/2022SuperettanSuperettan · Round 10Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

IK brage45%
×Draw25%
Norrby IF30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IK brage
1.58
Norrby IF
1.23

IK brage creates 28% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 84 away

creates per match

IK brage
1.61
Norrby IF
1.12

allows per match

IK brage
1.34
Norrby IF
1.56

finishing

IK brage+0.00on par
Norrby IF+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IK brage ↓

Norrby IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

IK brage or draw
70%
IK brage or Norrby IF
75%
Draw or Norrby IF
55%

Winning margin

IK brage wins by 2+
23%
Norrby IF wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

IK brage 1+ goals
79%
IK brage 2+ goals
47%
IK brage 3+ goals
21%
Norrby IF 1+ goals
71%
Norrby IF 2+ goals
35%
Norrby IF 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

IK brage (draw refunded)
60%
Norrby IF (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IK brage at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.34 · 127 matches

Norrby IF away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.56 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IK brage attack 1.61 + Norrby IF defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.58

Norrby IF attack 1.12 + IK brage defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

IK brage scores more
45%
level
25%
Norrby IF scores more
30%

IK brage at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "IK brage will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superettan: IK brage 2–1 Norrby IF

IK brage beat Norrby IF 2-1 in Superettan on May 28, 2022.

The match was played at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen in Borlänge.