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Njardvik vs Fjolnir — 1. Deild 2026

Njardvik
Njardvik
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Fjolnir
Fjolnir
A. Hjörleifsson 7'
Á. Sigursteinsson 21'
6/4/20251. Deild1. Deild · Round 6JBÓ völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Njardvik44%
×Draw22%
Fjolnir34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Njardvik
1.88
Fjolnir
1.65

Njardvik creates 14% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 19 away

creates per match

Njardvik
2.09
Fjolnir
2.00

allows per match

Njardvik
1.30
Fjolnir
1.68

finishing

Njardvik+0.00on par
Fjolnir+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Njardvik ↓

Fjolnir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Njardvik or draw
66%
Njardvik or Fjolnir
78%
Draw or Fjolnir
56%

Winning margin

Njardvik wins by 2+
24%
Fjolnir wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Njardvik 1+ goals
85%
Njardvik 2+ goals
56%
Njardvik 3+ goals
29%
Fjolnir 1+ goals
81%
Fjolnir 2+ goals
49%
Fjolnir 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Njardvik (draw refunded)
56%
Fjolnir (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Njardvik at home — creates 2.09, concedes 1.30 · 23 matches

Fjolnir away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Njardvik attack 2.09 + Fjolnir defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.88

Fjolnir attack 2.00 + Njardvik defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Njardvik scores more
44%
level
22%
Fjolnir scores more
34%

Njardvik at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Njardvik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
A. Hjörleifsson
21'
Á. Sigursteinsson
76'
R. Haraldsson
79'
A. Magnusson
87'
D. Ingvarsson
87'
A. Cosic
Njardvik
Fjolnir
G. Þorvaldsson
Manager: G. Þorvaldsson
Ú. Jökulsson
Manager: Ú. Jökulsson

1. Deild: Njardvik 1–1 Fjolnir

Njardvik and Fjolnir drew 1-1 in 1. Deild on June 4, 2025.

Goals: A. Hjörleifsson (7'), Á. Sigursteinsson (21').

The match was played at JBÓ völlurinn in Njarðvík, Reykjanesbær.