Fjolnir 1–2 Njardvik: Result & Stats | 1. Deild

Fjolnir

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Njardvik

A. Sigursteinsson 64'

D. Radic 78'

O. Diouck 56'

8/13/2025

1. Deild · Round 17Fjölnisvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Fjolnir30%

×Draw22%

Njardvik47%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FjolnirExpected goals in this matchNjardvik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.88

Fjolnir

1.46

Njardvik

1.88

Njardvik creates 29% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 22 away

1.56

creates per match

1.50

2.25

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Fjolnir

1.56

Njardvik

1.50

allows per match

Fjolnir

2.25

Njardvik

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fjolnir+0.00on par

Njardvik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fjolnir ↓

Njardvik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Fjolnir or draw

53%

Fjolnir or Njardvik

78%

Draw or Njardvik

70%

Winning margin

Fjolnir wins by 2+

14%

Njardvik wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Fjolnir 1+ goals

77%

Fjolnir 2+ goals

43%

Fjolnir 3+ goals

18%

Njardvik 1+ goals

85%

Njardvik 2+ goals

56%

Njardvik 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Fjolnir (draw refunded)

39%

Njardvik (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fjolnir at home — creates 1.56, concedes 2.25 · 16 matches

Njardvik away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.36 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fjolnir attack 1.56 + Njardvik defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.46

Njardvik attack 1.50 + Fjolnir defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Fjolnir scores more

30%

level

22%

Njardvik scores more

47%

Njardvik at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Njardvik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

D. Ingvarsson

46'

E. Vilhjalmsson← E. Vilhjalmsson

56'

O. Diouck

57'

V. Valgeirsson

64'

A. Sigursteinsson

70'

O. Thorhalsson← O. Thorhalsson

70'

V. Valgeirsson← V. Valgeirsson

70'

A. Al Mosawe← A. Al Mosawe

74'

M. Jorgensson

78'

D. Radic

84'

A. Magnusson← O. Diouck

84'

D. Radic← D. Radic

85'

B. T. Hafstein← B. T. Hafstein

85'

B. Gudjonsson← H. Hilmarsson

87'

T. Boakye← S. Thordarson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff