Fjolnir 4–2 Njardvik: Result & Stats | 1. Deild

Fjolnir

FT

4 – 2

HT: 3 – 1

Njardvik

M. Hilmarsson 52'

D. Axelsson 43'

V. Hjálmarsson 40'

K. Arnarsson 24'

K. í Bartalsstovu 90'

K. Hogg 36'

6/6/2024

1. Deild · Round 6Egilshöll

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Fjolnir37%

×Draw23%

Njardvik40%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FjolnirExpected goals in this matchNjardvik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.70

Fjolnir

1.61

Njardvik

1.70

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 23 away

1.74

creates per match

1.52

1.87

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Fjolnir

1.74

Njardvik

1.52

allows per match

Fjolnir

1.87

Njardvik

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fjolnir+0.00on par

Njardvik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fjolnir ↓

Njardvik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Fjolnir or draw

60%

Fjolnir or Njardvik

77%

Draw or Njardvik

63%

Winning margin

Fjolnir wins by 2+

18%

Njardvik wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Fjolnir 1+ goals

80%

Fjolnir 2+ goals

48%

Fjolnir 3+ goals

22%

Njardvik 1+ goals

82%

Njardvik 2+ goals

51%

Njardvik 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Fjolnir (draw refunded)

48%

Njardvik (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fjolnir at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.87 · 23 matches

Njardvik away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.48 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fjolnir attack 1.74 + Njardvik defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.61

Njardvik attack 1.52 + Fjolnir defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Fjolnir scores more

37%

level

23%

Njardvik scores more

40%

Njardvik at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Njardvik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

K. Arnarsson

36'

K. Hogg

39'

T. Jonsson

40'

V. Hjálmarsson

43'

D. Axelsson

46'

B. Hafstein← A. Harðarson

52'

M. Hilmarsson

60'

B. Berndsen

65'

J. Juliusson

69'

A. Cosic← F. Guðnason

69'

H. Hermannsson← T. Jónsson

70'

J. Arnarsson← D. Axelsson

70'

S. Reynisson← R. Haraldsson

80'

Ó. Thorlacius← K. Arnarsson

80'

S. Þórðarson← B. Björnsson

89'

S. Sigmarsson← G. Guðmundsson

90+5'

S. Markusson

90'

K. í Bartalsstovu

Fjolnir

Njardvik

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Axelsson

Júlíusson

⚽

▼

Arnarsson

▼

Harðarso

Manager: Ú. Jökulsson

46'▲B. Hafstein←▼A. Harðarson

70'▲J. Arnarsson←▼D. Axelsson

70'▲S. Reynisson←▼R. Haraldsson

80'▲Ó. Thorlacius←▼K. Arnarsson

89'▲S. Sigmarsson←▼G. Guðmundsson

Fjolnir substitutes

HafsteinArnarssonReynissonThorlaciusSigmarssonÞórhallssonHarðarson

Manager: G. Þorvaldsson

69'▲A. Cosic←▼F. Guðnason

69'▲H. Hermannsson←▼T. Jónsson

80'▲S. Þórðarson←▼B. Björnsson

Njardvik substitutes

CosicHermannssonÞórðarsonSigvaldasonReinhardssonGuðnasonKosov

Match Recap: Fjolnir vs Njardvik

Fjolnir beat Njardvik 4-2 in 1. Deild on June 6, 2024.

Goals: K. Arnarsson (24'), K. Hogg (36'), V. Hjálmarsson (40'), D. Axelsson (43'), M. Hilmarsson (52'), K. í Bartalsstovu (90').

The match was played at Egilshöll in Reykjavík.

Fjolnir vs Njardvik — 1. Deild 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Fjolnir vs Njardvik