Nizhny Novgorod 1–1 Avangard Kursk: Result & Stats

Nizhny Novgorod

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Avangard Kursk

A. Stavpets 20'

R. Minaev 45+2'

9/21/2019

First League · Round 14Stadion Nizhny Novgorod

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Nizhny Novgorod49%

×Draw28%

Avangard Kursk24%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nizhny NovgorodExpected goals in this matchAvangard Kursk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.88

Nizhny Novgorod

1.38

Avangard Kursk

0.88

Nizhny Novgorod creates 57% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 38 away

1.42

creates per match

0.97

0.79

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Nizhny Novgorod

1.42

Avangard Kursk

0.97

allows per match

Nizhny Novgorod

0.79

Avangard Kursk

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par

Avangard Kursk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nizhny Novgorod ↓

Avangard Kursk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Nizhny Novgorod or draw

76%

Nizhny Novgorod or Avangard Kursk

72%

Draw or Avangard Kursk

51%

Winning margin

Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+

23%

Avangard Kursk wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals

75%

Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals

40%

Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals

16%

Avangard Kursk 1+ goals

59%

Avangard Kursk 2+ goals

22%

Avangard Kursk 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)

67%

Avangard Kursk (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nizhny Novgorod at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.79 · 57 matches

Avangard Kursk away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.34 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.42 + Avangard Kursk defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.38

Avangard Kursk attack 0.97 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Nizhny Novgorod scores more

49%

level

28%

Avangard Kursk scores more

24%

Nizhny Novgorod at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Nizhny Novgorod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

A. Stavpets

45+2'

R. Minaev

48'

A. Kasaev

63'

A. Batyutin← D. Korobov

70'

A. Sagitov← P. Golyshev

83'

I. Zuev

85'

A. Lelyukaev

88'

K. Mashukov← A. Kasaev

89'

I. Chudin

90'

P. Komolov

90'

A. Dashayev

Nizhny

Avangard

1

40

4

97

66

3

▼

Kasaev

86

Chirkin

9

Grigorjev

87

▼

Korobov

10

Fedchuk

77

⚽

99

29

24

3

58

17

▼

Golyshev

61

⚽

8

13

20

10

Manager: D. Cheryshev

70'▲A. Sagitov←▼P. Golyshev

Nizhny Novgorod substitutes

71Sagitov1Anisimov12Guseynov55Morozov87Lebedev82Shilov

Manager: O. Vasilenko

63'▲A. Batyutin←▼D. Korobov

88'▲K. Mashukov←▼A. Kasaev

Avangard Kursk substitutes

18Batyutin7Mashukov6Kayumov13Chagrov14Kovalev17Sinyaev22Voynov23Kubyshkin

Match Recap: Nizhny Novgorod vs Avangard Kursk

Nizhny Novgorod and Avangard Kursk drew 1-1 in First League on September 21, 2019.

Goals: A. Stavpets (20'), R. Minaev (45+2').

The match was played at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod in Nizhniy Novgorod.

Nizhny Novgorod vs Avangard Kursk — First League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Nizhny Novgorod vs Avangard Kursk