Avangard Kursk 1–1 Nizhny Novgorod: Result & Stats

Avangard Kursk

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Nizhny Novgorod

M. Grigoryev 63' (pen)

M. Palienko 3'

3/10/2019

First League · Round 26Stadion Trudovye Reservy (Kursk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Avangard Kursk35%

×Draw28%

Nizhny Novgorod37%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Avangard KurskExpected goals in this matchNizhny Novgorod

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.23

Avangard Kursk

1.19

Nizhny Novgorod

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 39 home / 55 away

1.44

creates per match

1.24

1.23

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Avangard Kursk

1.44

Nizhny Novgorod

1.24

allows per match

Avangard Kursk

1.23

Nizhny Novgorod

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Avangard Kursk+0.00on par

Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avangard Kursk ↓

Nizhny Novgorod →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Avangard Kursk or draw

63%

Avangard Kursk or Nizhny Novgorod

72%

Draw or Nizhny Novgorod

65%

Winning margin

Avangard Kursk wins by 2+

15%

Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Avangard Kursk 1+ goals

70%

Avangard Kursk 2+ goals

33%

Avangard Kursk 3+ goals

12%

Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals

71%

Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals

35%

Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Avangard Kursk (draw refunded)

49%

Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avangard Kursk at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.23 · 39 matches

Nizhny Novgorod away — creates 1.24, concedes 0.95 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avangard Kursk attack 1.44 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.19

Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.24 + Avangard Kursk defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Avangard Kursk scores more

35%

level

28%

Nizhny Novgorod scores more

37%

Nizhny Novgorod at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Nizhny Novgorod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

M. Palienko

5'

Daniil Fomin

45'

Daniil Fomin

59'

Artem Abramov

62'

Artem Abramov

63'

M. GrigoryevPenalty

67'

Andrei Batyutin

69'

Dmitriy Korobov

75'

Vitaliy Fedoriv

76'

Kiril Gotsuk

90'

Alexander Troshechkin

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff