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Avangard Kursk vs Nizhny Novgorod — First League 2026

Avangard Kursk
Avangard Kursk
CANC
00:00
Nizhny Novgorod
Nizhny Novgorod
4/12/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 32

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Avangard Kursk38%
×Draw28%
Nizhny Novgorod35%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avangard Kursk
1.23
Nizhny Novgorod
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 54 away

creates per match

Avangard Kursk
1.52
Nizhny Novgorod
1.20

allows per match

Avangard Kursk
1.15
Nizhny Novgorod
0.93

finishing

Avangard Kursk+0.00on par
Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avangard Kursk ↓

Nizhny Novgorod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Avangard Kursk or draw
65%
Avangard Kursk or Nizhny Novgorod
72%
Draw or Nizhny Novgorod
62%

Winning margin

Avangard Kursk wins by 2+
16%
Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Avangard Kursk 1+ goals
71%
Avangard Kursk 2+ goals
35%
Avangard Kursk 3+ goals
13%
Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals
69%
Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals
33%
Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Avangard Kursk (draw refunded)
52%
Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avangard Kursk at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.15 · 33 matches

Nizhny Novgorod away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.93 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avangard Kursk attack 1.52 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.23

Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.20 + Avangard Kursk defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Avangard Kursk scores more
38%
level
28%
Nizhny Novgorod scores more
35%

Avangard Kursk at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Avangard Kursk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Avangard Kursk host Nizhny Novgorod

April 12, 2020: Avangard Kursk take on Nizhny Novgorod in First League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.