Niort 2–2 Paris FC: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Niort

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Paris FC

O. Kemen 54', 35'

O. Kanté 88'

F. Martin 58' (pen)

9/26/2020

Ligue 2 · Round 5Stade René Gaillard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Niort34%

×Draw29%

Paris FC37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NiortExpected goals in this matchParis FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.14

Niort

1.08

Paris FC

1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 92 home / 128 away

1.09

creates per match

1.05

1.23

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Niort

1.09

Paris FC

1.05

allows per match

Niort

1.23

Paris FC

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Niort+0.00on par

Paris FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niort ↓

Paris FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Niort or draw

63%

Niort or Paris FC

71%

Draw or Paris FC

66%

Winning margin

Niort wins by 2+

13%

Paris FC wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Niort 1+ goals

66%

Niort 2+ goals

29%

Niort 3+ goals

10%

Paris FC 1+ goals

68%

Paris FC 2+ goals

32%

Paris FC 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Niort (draw refunded)

48%

Paris FC (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niort at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.23 · 92 matches

Paris FC away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.08 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niort attack 1.09 + Paris FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.08

Paris FC attack 1.05 + Niort defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Niort scores more

34%

level

29%

Paris FC scores more

37%

Paris FC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Paris FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

O. Kemen

Niort · F

8.2

Match Events

7'

Yacine Bourhane

16'

Axel Bamba

19'

Julien Lopez

22'

Y. N'Diaye← L. Nomenjanahary

35'

O. Kemen↳ P. Bâ

44'

B. Matufueni M'bondo← I. Paro

45'

Yacine Bourhane

45'

Yacine Bourhane

46'

L. Vallier← G. Delguel

54'

O. Kemen↳ V. Jacob

57'

Guy-Marcelin Kilama

58'

F. MartinPenalty

63'

A. Baroan← P. Bâ

63'

G. Laura← J. López

63'

A. Abdi← G. Belaud

64'

G. Koyalipou← B. Boutobba

68'

Youssoupha Ndiaye

75'

Antoine Baroan

85'

S. Arab← F. Martin

85'

M. Kikonda← J. Pitroipa

88'

O. Kanté↳ S. Arab

90'

D. Djigla← V. Jacob

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NiortParis

Overview

44%Possession56%

9Total Shots15

1Corners5

20Fouls13

Shots

9Total Shots15

4On Target5

4Off Target7

1Blocked3

5Inside Box10

4Outside Box5

Passing

44%Possession56%

325Total Passes406

258Accurate Passes343

79%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

20Fouls13

4Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards1

2Offsides0

Niort 2 – 2 Paris FC

Niort and Paris FC drew 2-2 in Ligue 2 on September 26, 2020.

Goals: O. Kemen (35', 54'), F. Martin (58' pen), O. Kanté (88').

Paris FC controlled possession (56%) and registered 15 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stade René Gaillard in Niort.

Niort vs Paris FC — Ligue 2 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Niort 2 – 2 Paris FC