Niort 4–4 Paris FC: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Niort

FT

4 – 4

HT: 3 – 2

Paris FC

M. Sans 82'

I. Sissoko 45' (pen), 21' (pen), 11'

O. Kanté 90+7'

C. Mandouki 52'

R. Armand 32' (pen), 8'

1/31/2020

Ligue 2 · Round 22Stade René Gaillard (Niort)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Niort33%

×Draw29%

Paris FC38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NiortExpected goals in this matchParis FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.17

Niort

1.08

Paris FC

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 96 home / 128 away

1.08

creates per match

1.05

1.28

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Niort

1.08

Paris FC

1.05

allows per match

Niort

1.28

Paris FC

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Niort+0.00on par

Paris FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niort ↓

Paris FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Niort or draw

62%

Niort or Paris FC

71%

Draw or Paris FC

67%

Winning margin

Niort wins by 2+

13%

Paris FC wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Niort 1+ goals

66%

Niort 2+ goals

29%

Niort 3+ goals

10%

Paris FC 1+ goals

69%

Paris FC 2+ goals

33%

Paris FC 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Niort (draw refunded)

47%

Paris FC (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niort at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.28 · 96 matches

Paris FC away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.08 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niort attack 1.08 + Paris FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.08

Paris FC attack 1.05 + Niort defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Niort scores more

33%

level

29%

Paris FC scores more

38%

Paris FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Paris FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

I. Sissoko

Niort · F

9.5

Match Events

1'

Ali Abdi

8'

R. Armand↳ J. López Baila

11'

I. Sissoko↳ G. Koyalipou

19'

Cyril Mandouki

21'

I. SissokoPenalty

32'

R. ArmandPenalty

33'

Ibrahim Sissoko

45'

I. SissokoPenalty

46'

A. Leautey← J. Da Costa

50'

Thibaut Vion

52'

C. Mandouki↳ J. López Baila

71'

D. Djigla← G. Koyalipou

75'

M. Kikonda← L. Nomenjanahary

78'

82'

82'

85'

87'

90+7'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NiortParis

Overview

54%Possession46%

13Total Shots17

2Corners7

12Fouls15

Shots

13Total Shots17

8On Target6

3Off Target7

2Blocked4

9Inside Box11

4Outside Box6

Passing

54%Possession46%

402Total Passes337

310Accurate Passes227

77%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls15

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0

Ligue 2: Niort 4–4 Paris FC

Niort and Paris FC drew 4-4 in Ligue 2 on January 31, 2020.

Goals: R. Armand (8', 32' pen), I. Sissoko (11', 21' pen, 45' pen), C. Mandouki (52'), M. Sans (82'), O. Kanté (90+7').

Niort controlled possession (54%) and registered 13 shots to 17.

The match was played at Stade René Gaillard (Niort) in Niort.

Niort vs Paris FC — Ligue 2 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Ligue 2: Niort 4–4 Paris FC