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Niort vs Paris FC — Ligue 2 2018

Niort
Niort
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Paris FC
Paris FC
A. Dona N'Doh 32' (pen)
10/5/2018Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 10Stade René-Gaillard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Niort33%
×Draw29%
Paris FC38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Niort
1.08
Paris FC
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 96 home / 128 away

creates per match

Niort
1.08
Paris FC
1.05

allows per match

Niort
1.28
Paris FC
1.08

finishing

Niort+0.00on par
Paris FC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niort ↓

Paris FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Niort or draw
62%
Niort or Paris FC
71%
Draw or Paris FC
67%

Winning margin

Niort wins by 2+
13%
Paris FC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Niort 1+ goals
66%
Niort 2+ goals
29%
Niort 3+ goals
10%
Paris FC 1+ goals
69%
Paris FC 2+ goals
33%
Paris FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Niort (draw refunded)
47%
Paris FC (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niort at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.28 · 96 matches

Paris FC away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.08 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niort attack 1.08 + Paris FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.08

Paris FC attack 1.05 + Niort defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Niort scores more
33%
level
29%
Paris FC scores more
38%

Paris FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Paris FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
S. AllagbéNiortNiort · G
7.5

Match Events

31'
Souleymane Karamoko
32'
A. Dona N'DohPenalty
60'
Y. Mamilonne← D. Saint-Louis
65'
Azevedo← A. Sarr
72'
T. Vion← G. Koyalipou
79'
A. Leautey← F. Lapis
79'
S. Wamangituka← L. Nomenjanahary
84'
L. Ameka← V. Jacob
90'
Ande Dona Ndoh

Possession

43%Niort

Shots

5Niort

Pass accuracy

48%Niort

Statistics

NiortParis
Overview
43%Possession57%
5Total Shots8
5Corners4
19Fouls16
Shots
5Total Shots8
2On Target2
2Off Target6
1Blocked0
2Inside Box5
3Outside Box3
Passing
43%Possession57%
401Total Passes530
315Accurate Passes451
79%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
19Fouls16
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
0Offsides4

Match Recap: Niort vs Paris FC

Niort beat Paris FC 1-0 in Ligue 2 on October 5, 2018.

Goals: A. Dona N'Doh (32' pen).

Paris FC controlled possession (57%) and registered 8 shots to 5.

The match was played at Stade René-Gaillard in Niort.