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Niort vs Metz — Ligue 2 2018

Niort
Niort
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Metz
Metz
N. Elphege 42'
G. Mikautadze 83', 45' (pen)
Y. Maziz 51'
5/6/2023Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 34Stade René Gaillard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Niort27%
×Draw27%
Metz46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Niort
1.00
Metz
1.40

Metz creates 40% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 55 away

creates per match

Niort
1.10
Metz
1.56

allows per match

Niort
1.24
Metz
0.89

finishing

Niort+0.00on par
Metz+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niort ↓

Metz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Niort or draw
54%
Niort or Metz
73%
Draw or Metz
73%

Winning margin

Niort wins by 2+
10%
Metz wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Niort 1+ goals
63%
Niort 2+ goals
26%
Niort 3+ goals
8%
Metz 1+ goals
75%
Metz 2+ goals
41%
Metz 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Niort (draw refunded)
37%
Metz (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niort at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.24 · 93 matches

Metz away — creates 1.56, concedes 0.89 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niort attack 1.10 + Metz defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.00

Metz attack 1.56 + Niort defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Niort scores more
27%
level
27%
Metz scores more
46%

Metz at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Metz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
G. MikautadzeMetzMetz · F
8.3

Match Events

42'
N. Elphege↳ B. Boutobba
45'
G. MikautadzePenalty
51'
Y. Maziz↳ K. Kouao
64'
O. Ngom← C. Kaboré
65'
S. Benchamma← M. Zemzemi
70'
Danley Jean Jacques
73'
H. Maïga← C. Sabaly
76'
Koffi Kouao
76'
Y. Merdji← S. Renel
82'
J. N'Duquidi← Y. Maziz
83'
G. Mikautadze
87'
T. Tormin← A. Sagna
89'
M. Mbaye← G. Mikautadze
90'
L. Joseph← A. Jallow

Possession

48%Niort

Shots

11Niort

Pass accuracy

50%Niort

Statistics

NiortMetz
Overview
48%Possession52%
11Total Shots19
4Corners6
7Fouls12
Shots
11Total Shots19
3On Target7
5Off Target7
3Blocked5
5Inside Box14
6Outside Box5
Passing
48%Possession52%
447Total Passes480
373Accurate Passes404
83%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
7Fouls12
0Yellow Cards2

Niort 1 – 3 Metz

Metz beat Niort 3-1 in Ligue 2 on May 6, 2023.

Goals: N. Elphege (42'), G. Mikautadze (45' pen, 83'), Y. Maziz (51').

Metz controlled possession (52%) and registered 19 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stade René Gaillard in Niort.