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Metz vs Niort — Ligue 2 2018

Metz
Metz
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Niort
Niort
12/26/2022Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 16Stade Saint-Symphorien

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Metz58%
×Draw24%
Niort18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metz
1.67
Niort
0.79

Metz creates 111% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 92 away

creates per match

Metz
1.79
Niort
0.85

allows per match

Metz
0.73
Niort
1.54

finishing

Metz+0.00on par
Niort+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metz ↓

Niort →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Metz or draw
82%
Metz or Niort
76%
Draw or Niort
42%

Winning margin

Metz wins by 2+
32%
Niort wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Metz 1+ goals
81%
Metz 2+ goals
50%
Metz 3+ goals
23%
Niort 1+ goals
55%
Niort 2+ goals
19%
Niort 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Metz (draw refunded)
77%
Niort (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metz at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.73 · 56 matches

Niort away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.54 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metz attack 1.79 + Niort defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.67

Niort attack 0.85 + Metz defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Metz scores more
58%
level
24%
Niort scores more
18%

Metz at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Metz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
G. KilamaNiortNiort · D
7.9

Match Events

14'
A. Atta← K. NDoram
46'
L. Gueye← A. Jallow
59'
A. Sagna← J. Olaitan
68'
C. Sabaly← I. Niane
68'
M. Zemzemi← S. Benchamma
73'
Danley Jean Jacques
82'
J. Moutachy← S. Renel
82'
B. M'bondo← G. Kilama
88'
L. Joseph← G. Mikautadze
90+2'
Moataz Zemzemi

Possession

48%Metz

Shots

16Metz

Pass accuracy

51%Metz

Statistics

MetzNiort
Overview
48%Possession52%
16Total Shots10
6Corners4
15Fouls12
Shots
16Total Shots10
5On Target3
7Off Target3
4Blocked4
9Inside Box7
7Outside Box3
Passing
48%Possession52%
446Total Passes488
361Accurate Passes387
81%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
15Fouls12
1Yellow Cards1

Ligue 2: Metz 0–0 Niort

Metz and Niort drew 0-0 in Ligue 2 on December 26, 2022.

Niort controlled possession (52%) and registered 10 shots to 16.

The match was played at Stade Saint-Symphorien in Longeville-lès-Metz.