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Metz vs Niort — Ligue 2 2018

Metz
Metz
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Niort
Niort
O. N'Guette 90+4'
S. Sunzu 80'
H. Diallo 29'
10/19/2018Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 11Stade Saint-Symphorien

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Metz59%
×Draw24%
Niort17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metz
1.67
Niort
0.78

Metz creates 114% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 93 away

creates per match

Metz
1.79
Niort
0.84

allows per match

Metz
0.72
Niort
1.55

finishing

Metz+0.00on par
Niort+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metz ↓

Niort →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Metz or draw
83%
Metz or Niort
76%
Draw or Niort
41%

Winning margin

Metz wins by 2+
32%
Niort wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Metz 1+ goals
81%
Metz 2+ goals
50%
Metz 3+ goals
23%
Niort 1+ goals
54%
Niort 2+ goals
18%
Niort 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Metz (draw refunded)
77%
Niort (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metz at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.72 · 57 matches

Niort away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.55 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metz attack 1.79 + Niort defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.67

Niort attack 0.84 + Metz defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Metz scores more
59%
level
24%
Niort scores more
17%

Metz at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Metz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24
R. CohadeMetzMetz · M
8.3

Match Events

9'
Habib Diallo
11'
Brahim Konate
27'
C. Rivieyran← G. Kilama
29'
H. Diallo↳ R. Cohade
46'
A. Leautey← D. Djigla
51'
Q. Bena← B. Konaté
66'
Julien Da Costa
77'
Habib Gueye
80'
Renaud Cohade
80'
S. Sunzu↳ M. Gakpa
84'
M. Fofana← M. Gakpa
90'
Dylan Louiserre
90+2'
Jamiro← H. Maïga
90+4'
O. N'Guette← F. Boulaya
90+4'
O. N'Guette↳ R. Cohade

Possession

51%Metz

Shots

25Metz

Pass accuracy

51%Metz

Statistics

MetzNiort
Overview
51%Possession49%
25Total Shots6
7Corners2
14Fouls11
Shots
25Total Shots6
8On Target1
7Off Target4
10Blocked1
17Inside Box3
8Outside Box3
Passing
51%Possession49%
467Total Passes441
370Accurate Passes332
79%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
14Fouls11
2Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards0
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Metz vs Niort

Metz beat Niort 3-0 in Ligue 2 on October 19, 2018.

Goals: H. Diallo (29'), S. Sunzu (80'), O. N'Guette (90+4').

Metz controlled possession (51%) and registered 25 shots to 6.

The match was played at Stade Saint-Symphorien in Metz.