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Niort vs Clermont Foot — Ligue 2 2018

Niort
Niort
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Clermont Foot
Clermont Foot
P. Bâ 22'
12/1/2020Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 13Stade René Gaillard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Niort34%
×Draw29%
Clermont Foot37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Niort
1.11
Clermont Foot
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 91 home / 87 away

creates per match

Niort
1.09
Clermont Foot
1.09

allows per match

Niort
1.22
Clermont Foot
1.14

finishing

Niort+0.00on par
Clermont Foot+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niort ↓

Clermont Foot →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Niort or draw
63%
Niort or Clermont Foot
71%
Draw or Clermont Foot
66%

Winning margin

Niort wins by 2+
14%
Clermont Foot wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Niort 1+ goals
67%
Niort 2+ goals
30%
Niort 3+ goals
10%
Clermont Foot 1+ goals
69%
Clermont Foot 2+ goals
32%
Clermont Foot 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Niort (draw refunded)
48%
Clermont Foot (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niort at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.22 · 91 matches

Clermont Foot away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.14 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niort attack 1.09 + Clermont Foot defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.11

Clermont Foot attack 1.09 + Niort defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Niort scores more
34%
level
29%
Clermont Foot scores more
37%

Clermont Foot at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Clermont Foot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24
Y. BourhaneNiortNiort · M
7.9

Match Events

15'
Lenny Vallier
22'
P. Bâ↳ Y. Bourhane
42'
Jordan Tell
57'
J. Moutachy← L. Vallier
59'
M. Bayo← J. Berthomier
62'
Johan Gastien
71'
Joseph Mendes← P. Bâ
71'
C. Gomis← J. Dossou
71'
S. Chader← J. Allevinah
73'
Joris Moutachy
78'
Arthur Desmas
81'
L. Rajot← J. Gastien
81'
A. Seidu← D. Trichard
89'
B. Konaté← B. Boutobba

Possession

43%Niort

Shots

11Niort

Pass accuracy

49%Niort

Statistics

NiortClermont
Overview
43%Possession57%
11Total Shots11
3Corners3
21Fouls9
Shots
11Total Shots11
4On Target2
4Off Target6
3Blocked3
5Inside Box3
6Outside Box8
Passing
43%Possession57%
425Total Passes562
341Accurate Passes474
80%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
21Fouls9
2Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1
2Offsides2

Ligue 2: Niort 1–0 Clermont Foot

Niort beat Clermont Foot 1-0 in Ligue 2 on December 1, 2020.

Goals: P. Bâ (22').

Clermont Foot controlled possession (57%) and registered 11 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stade René Gaillard in Niort.