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Clermont Foot vs Niort — Ligue 2 2018

Clermont Foot
Clermont Foot
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Niort
Niort
J. Iglesias 32'
11/29/2019Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 16Stade Gabriel Montpied (Clermont-Ferrand)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Clermont Foot50%
×Draw27%
Niort23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Clermont Foot
1.45
Niort
0.89

Clermont Foot creates 63% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 93 away

creates per match

Clermont Foot
1.34
Niort
0.84

allows per match

Clermont Foot
0.93
Niort
1.55

finishing

Clermont Foot+0.00on par
Niort+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clermont Foot ↓

Niort →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Clermont Foot or draw
77%
Clermont Foot or Niort
73%
Draw or Niort
50%

Winning margin

Clermont Foot wins by 2+
25%
Niort wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Clermont Foot 1+ goals
77%
Clermont Foot 2+ goals
42%
Clermont Foot 3+ goals
18%
Niort 1+ goals
59%
Niort 2+ goals
22%
Niort 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Clermont Foot (draw refunded)
68%
Niort (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Clermont Foot at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.93 · 88 matches

Niort away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.55 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Clermont Foot attack 1.34 + Niort defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.45

Niort attack 0.84 + Clermont Foot defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Clermont Foot scores more
50%
level
27%
Niort scores more
23%

Clermont Foot at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Clermont Foot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
M. DupéClermont FootClermont Foot · G
7.6

Match Events

30'
J. Albert← C. Hountondji
32'
J. Iglesias↳ A. Grbic
68'
B. Konaté← Y. Bourhane
69'
A. N'Diaye← J. Allevinah
76'
Ibrahim Sissoko
78'
A. Baroan← B. Doukansy
81'
D. Djigla← A. Leautey
85'
J. Donisa← C. Gomis

Possession

63%Clermont

Shots

13Clermont

Pass accuracy

54%Clermont

Statistics

ClermontNiort
Overview
63%Possession37%
13Total Shots10
5Corners2
6Fouls15
Shots
13Total Shots10
5On Target3
6Off Target4
2Blocked3
7Inside Box4
6Outside Box6
Passing
63%Possession37%
608Total Passes349
525Accurate Passes251
86%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
6Fouls15
0Red Cards1
4Offsides1

Ligue 2: Clermont Foot 1–0 Niort

Clermont Foot beat Niort 1-0 in Ligue 2 on November 29, 2019.

Goals: J. Iglesias (32').

Clermont Foot controlled possession (63%) and registered 13 shots to 10.

The match was played at Stade Gabriel Montpied (Clermont-Ferrand) in Clermont-Ferrand.