Clermont Foot 3–2 Niort: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Clermont Foot

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Niort

J. Iglesias 78', 25'

F. Aye 21'

B. Konaté 81'

V. Jacob 37'

1/11/2019

Ligue 2 · Round 20Stade Gabriel Montpied

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Clermont Foot50%

×Draw27%

Niort23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Clermont FootExpected goals in this matchNiort

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.89

Clermont Foot

1.45

Niort

0.89

Clermont Foot creates 63% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 93 away

1.34

creates per match

0.84

0.93

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Clermont Foot

1.34

Niort

0.84

allows per match

Clermont Foot

0.93

Niort

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Clermont Foot+0.00on par

Niort+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clermont Foot ↓

Niort →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Clermont Foot or draw

77%

Clermont Foot or Niort

73%

Draw or Niort

50%

Winning margin

Clermont Foot wins by 2+

25%

Niort wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Clermont Foot 1+ goals

77%

Clermont Foot 2+ goals

42%

Clermont Foot 3+ goals

18%

Niort 1+ goals

59%

Niort 2+ goals

22%

Niort 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Clermont Foot (draw refunded)

68%

Niort (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Clermont Foot at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.93 · 88 matches

Niort away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.55 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Clermont Foot attack 1.34 + Niort defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.45

Niort attack 0.84 + Clermont Foot defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Clermont Foot scores more

50%

level

27%

Niort scores more

23%

Clermont Foot at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Clermont Foot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

J. Iglesias

Clermont Foot · M

8.2

Match Events

16'

Julien Laporte

18'

Julien Da Costa

21'

F. Aye↳ J. Phojo

25'

J. Iglesias

30'

Mathias Pereira Lage

37'

V. Jacob

54'

Q. Bena← F. Lapis

58'

Vital N'Simba

67'

A. Leautey← J. Da Costa

72'

Valentin Jacob

78'

J. Iglesias↳ J. Gastien

81'

B. Konaté↳ A. Leautey

82'

A. N'Diaye← F. Honorat

82'

L. Ameka← D. Djigla

86'

J. Berthomier← Mathias Lage

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ClermontNiort

Overview

60%Possession40%

15Total Shots8

4Corners1

11Fouls12

Shots

15Total Shots8

5On Target3

5Off Target5

5Blocked0

10Inside Box3

5Outside Box5

Passing

60%Possession40%

538Total Passes365

442Accurate Passes269

82%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls12

3Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

4Offsides0