Niort 3–1 Bordeaux: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Niort

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Bordeaux

J. Olaitan 90+4'

B. Passi 45+2'

M. Zemzemi 28'

A. Badji 30'

2/11/2023

Ligue 2 · Round 23Stade René Gaillard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Niort37%

×Draw28%

Bordeaux35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NiortExpected goals in this matchBordeaux

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.17

Niort

1.22

Bordeaux

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 91 home / 38 away

1.09

creates per match

1.11

1.22

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Niort

1.09

Bordeaux

1.11

allows per match

Niort

1.22

Bordeaux

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Niort+0.00on par

Bordeaux+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niort ↓

Bordeaux →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Niort or draw

65%

Niort or Bordeaux

72%

Draw or Bordeaux

63%

Winning margin

Niort wins by 2+

16%

Bordeaux wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Niort 1+ goals

70%

Niort 2+ goals

34%

Niort 3+ goals

12%

Bordeaux 1+ goals

69%

Bordeaux 2+ goals

33%

Bordeaux 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Niort (draw refunded)

52%

Bordeaux (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niort at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.22 · 91 matches

Bordeaux away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.34 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niort attack 1.09 + Bordeaux defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.22

Bordeaux attack 1.11 + Niort defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Niort scores more

37%

level

28%

Bordeaux scores more

35%

Niort at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Niort will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

M. Michel

Niort · G

7.9

Match Events

15'

28'

30'

45+1'

45+2'

B. Passi↳ B. Boutobba

46'

C. Michelin← S. Gregersen

52'

S. Renel← C. Kaboré

66'

A. Sagna← K. Rocheteau

68'

M. De Lima← Z. Davitashvili

77'

A. Pitu← J. Maja

77'

L. Delaurier-Chaubet← D. Bakwa

78'

J. Flemmings← B. Boutobba

90+4'

Junior Olaitan

90+4'

J. Olaitan↳ A. Sagna

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NiortBordeaux

Overview

41%Possession59%

13Total Shots16

3Corners8

4Fouls9

Shots

13Total Shots16

6On Target7

3Off Target4

4Blocked5

6Inside Box7

7Outside Box9

Passing

41%Possession59%

384Total Passes558

290Accurate Passes460

76%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

6Saves3

Discipline

4Fouls9

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1

Ligue 2: Niort 3–1 Bordeaux

Niort beat Bordeaux 3-1 in Ligue 2 on February 11, 2023.

Goals: M. Zemzemi (28'), A. Badji (30'), B. Passi (45+2'), J. Olaitan (90+4').

Bordeaux controlled possession (59%) and registered 16 shots to 13.

The match was played at Stade René Gaillard in Niort.

Niort vs Bordeaux — Ligue 2 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Ligue 2: Niort 3–1 Bordeaux