Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Niort vs Bordeaux — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Niort
Niort
FT
5 – 3
Bordeaux
Bordeaux
12/20/2022Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stade René Gaillard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Niort42%
×Draw22%
Bordeaux36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Niort
1.83
Bordeaux
1.67

Niort creates 10% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Niort
1.67
Bordeaux
2.00

allows per match

Niort
1.33
Bordeaux
2.00

finishing

Niort+0.00on par
Bordeaux+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niort ↓

Bordeaux →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Niort or draw
64%
Niort or Bordeaux
78%
Draw or Bordeaux
58%

Winning margin

Niort wins by 2+
22%
Bordeaux wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Niort 1+ goals
84%
Niort 2+ goals
54%
Niort 3+ goals
28%
Bordeaux 1+ goals
81%
Bordeaux 2+ goals
50%
Bordeaux 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Niort (draw refunded)
54%
Bordeaux (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niort at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Bordeaux away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niort attack 1.67 + Bordeaux defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Bordeaux attack 2.00 + Niort defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Niort scores more
42%
level
22%
Bordeaux scores more
36%

Niort at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Niort will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Niort vs Bordeaux

Niort beat Bordeaux 5-3 in Friendlies Clubs on December 20, 2022.

The match was played at Stade René Gaillard in Niort.