Bordeaux 1–0 Niort: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Bordeaux

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Niort

L. Delaurier-Chaubet 61'

8/13/2022

Ligue 2 · Round 3Stade Matmut-Atlantique

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Bordeaux55%

×Draw25%

Niort19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BordeauxExpected goals in this matchNiort

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.80

Bordeaux

1.56

Niort

0.80

Bordeaux creates 95% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 92 away

1.59

creates per match

0.85

0.76

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Bordeaux

1.59

Niort

0.85

allows per match

Bordeaux

0.76

Niort

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bordeaux+0.00on par

Niort+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bordeaux ↓

Niort →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Bordeaux or draw

81%

Bordeaux or Niort

75%

Draw or Niort

45%

Winning margin

Bordeaux wins by 2+

29%

Niort wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Bordeaux 1+ goals

79%

Bordeaux 2+ goals

46%

Bordeaux 3+ goals

21%

Niort 1+ goals

55%

Niort 2+ goals

19%

Niort 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Bordeaux (draw refunded)

74%

Niort (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bordeaux at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.76 · 37 matches

Niort away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.54 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bordeaux attack 1.59 + Niort defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.56

Niort attack 0.85 + Bordeaux defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Bordeaux scores more

55%

level

25%

Niort scores more

19%

Bordeaux at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Bordeaux will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

G. Poussin

Bordeaux · G

8.0

Match Events

61'

L. Delaurier-Chaubet↳ J. Maja

62'

J. Olaitan← G. Bentil

73'

J. Onana← T. Lacoux

74'

A. Elis← J. Maja

81'

Stian Gregersen

82'

I. Bakayoko← A. Sagna

87'

Danylo Ignatenko

87'

Nacim El Hassani← S. Benchamma

88'

Hwang Ui-Jo← D. Bakwa

89'

I. Sissokho← Fransérgio

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BordeauxNiort

Overview

56%Possession44%

15Total Shots12

3Corners7

12Fouls8

Shots

15Total Shots12

3On Target4

9Off Target4

3Blocked4

8Inside Box8

7Outside Box4

Passing

56%Possession44%

507Total Passes385

427Accurate Passes304

84%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls8

2Yellow Cards0

4Offsides4