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Niort vs Amiens — Ligue 2 2018

Niort
Niort
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Amiens
Amiens
1/31/2023Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 21Stade René Gaillard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Niort41%
×Draw27%
Amiens32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Niort
1.31
Amiens
1.13

Niort creates 16% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 111 away

creates per match

Niort
1.11
Amiens
0.98

allows per match

Niort
1.28
Amiens
1.52

finishing

Niort+0.00on par
Amiens+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niort ↓

Amiens →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Niort or draw
68%
Niort or Amiens
73%
Draw or Amiens
59%

Winning margin

Niort wins by 2+
18%
Amiens wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Niort 1+ goals
73%
Niort 2+ goals
38%
Niort 3+ goals
14%
Amiens 1+ goals
68%
Amiens 2+ goals
31%
Amiens 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Niort (draw refunded)
56%
Amiens (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niort at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.28 · 97 matches

Amiens away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.52 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niort attack 1.11 + Amiens defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.31

Amiens attack 0.98 + Niort defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Niort scores more
41%
level
27%
Amiens scores more
32%

Niort at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Niort will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Niort vs Amiens

Amiens beat Niort 3-1 in Ligue 2 on January 31, 2023.

The match was played at Stade René Gaillard in Niort.