Amiens 0–0 Niort: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Amiens

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Niort

5/8/2021

Ligue 2 · Round 37Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Amiens45%

×Draw28%

Niort27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AmiensExpected goals in this matchNiort

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

0.95

Amiens

1.32

Niort

0.95

Amiens creates 39% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 91 away

1.09

creates per match

0.84

1.06

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Amiens

1.09

Niort

0.84

allows per match

Amiens

1.06

Niort

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Amiens+0.00on par

Niort+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amiens ↓

Niort →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Amiens or draw

73%

Amiens or Niort

72%

Draw or Niort

55%

Winning margin

Amiens wins by 2+

21%

Niort wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Amiens 1+ goals

73%

Amiens 2+ goals

38%

Amiens 3+ goals

15%

Niort 1+ goals

61%

Niort 2+ goals

25%

Niort 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Amiens (draw refunded)

63%

Niort (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amiens at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.06 · 111 matches

Niort away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.55 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amiens attack 1.09 + Niort defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.32

Niort attack 0.84 + Amiens defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Amiens scores more

45%

level

28%

Niort scores more

27%

Amiens at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Amiens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

L. Vallier

Niort · D

7.3

Match Events

14'

Arnaud Lusamba

46'

Bradley Matufueni Mbondo

48'

Emmanuel Lomotey

54'

N. Monzango← Rafael Fonseca

65'

S. Odey← A. Diakhaby

65'

A. Ouattara← C. Timite

65'

B. Boutobba← B. Matufueni Mbondo

78'

M. Lachuer← J. Papeau

78'

S. Yatabaré← I. Gomis

90'

Stephen Odey

90+3'

B. Doukansy← Y. Bourhane

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AmiensNiort

Overview

42%Possession58%

6Total Shots7

2Corners2

13Fouls13

Shots

6Total Shots7

3On Target1

2Off Target4

1Blocked2

1Inside Box5

5Outside Box2

Passing

42%Possession58%

347Total Passes455

267Accurate Passes383

77%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls13

2Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

2Offsides3

Ligue 2: Amiens 0–0 Niort

Amiens and Niort drew 0-0 in Ligue 2 on May 8, 2021.

Niort controlled possession (58%) and registered 7 shots to 6.

The match was played at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne in Amiens.

Amiens vs Niort — Ligue 2 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Ligue 2: Amiens 0–0 Niort