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Niort vs Amiens — Ligue 2 2018

Niort
Niort
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Amiens
Amiens
8/28/2021Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 6Stade René Gaillard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Niort41%
×Draw27%
Amiens31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Niort
1.31
Amiens
1.10

Niort creates 19% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 111 away

creates per match

Niort
1.09
Amiens
0.98

allows per match

Niort
1.22
Amiens
1.52

finishing

Niort+0.00on par
Amiens+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niort ↓

Amiens →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Niort or draw
69%
Niort or Amiens
73%
Draw or Amiens
59%

Winning margin

Niort wins by 2+
19%
Amiens wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Niort 1+ goals
73%
Niort 2+ goals
38%
Niort 3+ goals
14%
Amiens 1+ goals
67%
Amiens 2+ goals
30%
Amiens 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Niort (draw refunded)
57%
Amiens (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niort at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.22 · 91 matches

Amiens away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.52 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niort attack 1.09 + Amiens defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.31

Amiens attack 0.98 + Niort defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Niort scores more
41%
level
27%
Amiens scores more
31%

Niort at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Niort will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
R. GurtnerAmiensAmiens · G
8.3

Match Events

54'
Yohan Cassubie
55'
Mickaël Alphonse
64'
Joseph Mendes← M. Zemzemi
64'
T. Arokodare← A. Badji
65'
A. Diakhaby← C. Akolo
65'
I. Gomis← J. Papeau
72'
A. Ciss← Mamadou Fofana II
78'
B. Doukansy← S. Benchamma
88'
T. Lebeau← Y. Merdji
90+2'
Darline Zidane Yongwa Ngameni

Possession

51%Niort

Shots

17Niort

Pass accuracy

51%Niort

Statistics

NiortAmiens
Overview
51%Possession49%
17Total Shots7
6Corners6
7Fouls8
Shots
17Total Shots7
6On Target0
7Off Target3
4Blocked4
11Inside Box3
6Outside Box4
Passing
51%Possession49%
463Total Passes443
373Accurate Passes350
81%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
Discipline
7Fouls8
2Yellow Cards1

Niort 0 – 0 Amiens

Niort and Amiens drew 0-0 in Ligue 2 on August 28, 2021.

Niort controlled possession (51%) and registered 17 shots to 7.

The match was played at Stade René Gaillard in Niort.