Niort 0–2 Amiens: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Niort

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Amiens

C. Akolo 40', 24'

1/8/2021

Ligue 2 · Round 19Stade René Gaillard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Niort41%

×Draw27%

Amiens31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NiortExpected goals in this matchAmiens

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.11

Niort

1.31

Amiens

1.11

Niort creates 18% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 111 away

1.10

creates per match

0.98

1.24

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Niort

1.10

Amiens

0.98

allows per match

Niort

1.24

Amiens

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Niort+0.00on par

Amiens+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niort ↓

Amiens →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Niort or draw

69%

Niort or Amiens

73%

Draw or Amiens

59%

Winning margin

Niort wins by 2+

19%

Amiens wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Niort 1+ goals

73%

Niort 2+ goals

38%

Niort 3+ goals

14%

Amiens 1+ goals

67%

Amiens 2+ goals

30%

Amiens 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Niort (draw refunded)

57%

Amiens (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niort at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.24 · 93 matches

Amiens away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.52 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niort attack 1.10 + Amiens defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.31

Amiens attack 0.98 + Niort defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Niort scores more

41%

level

27%

Amiens scores more

31%

Niort at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Niort will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

C. Akolo

Amiens · F

8.3

Match Events

18'

Nicholas Opoku

24'

C. Akolo

38'

Arnaud Lusamba

40'

C. Akolo↳ M. Alphonse

45'

58'

64'

70'

71'

73'

Joseph Mendes← G. Kilama

73'

L. Ameka← Y. Bourhane

90'

Gaoussou Traore

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NiortAmiens

Overview

60%Possession40%

14Total Shots12

8Corners7

21Fouls16

Shots

14Total Shots12

0On Target7

9Off Target3

5Blocked2

6Inside Box9

8Outside Box3

Passing

60%Possession40%

462Total Passes302

362Accurate Passes221

78%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

5Saves0

Discipline

21Fouls16

1Yellow Cards4

1Offsides1

Ligue 2: Niort 0–2 Amiens

Amiens beat Niort 2-0 in Ligue 2 on January 8, 2021.

Goals: C. Akolo (24', 40').

Niort controlled possession (60%) and registered 14 shots to 12.

The match was played at Stade René Gaillard in Niort.

Niort vs Amiens — Ligue 2 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Ligue 2: Niort 0–2 Amiens