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Newells Old Boys vs Lanus — League #1032 2026

Newells Old Boys
Newells Old Boys
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Lanus
Lanus
8/26/2023League #1032League #1032 · Round 2Estadio Marcelo Alberto Bielsa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Newells Old Boys15%
×Draw23%
Lanus62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Newells Old Boys
0.75
Lanus
1.79

Lanus creates 139% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Newells Old Boys
1.00
Lanus
1.33

allows per match

Newells Old Boys
2.25
Lanus
0.50

finishing

Newells Old Boys+0.00on par
Lanus+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newells Old Boys ↓

Lanus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–114%
0–213%
0–38%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Newells Old Boys or draw
38%
Newells Old Boys or Lanus
77%
Draw or Lanus
85%

Winning margin

Newells Old Boys wins by 2+
4%
Lanus wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Newells Old Boys 1+ goals
53%
Newells Old Boys 2+ goals
17%
Newells Old Boys 3+ goals
4%
Lanus 1+ goals
83%
Lanus 2+ goals
53%
Lanus 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Newells Old Boys (draw refunded)
20%
Lanus (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newells Old Boys at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Lanus away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newells Old Boys attack 1.00 + Lanus defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.75

Lanus attack 1.33 + Newells Old Boys defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Newells Old Boys scores more
15%
level
23%
Lanus scores more
62%

Lanus at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Lanus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Newells Old Boys vs Lanus

Newells Old Boys beat Lanus 1-0 in League #1032 on August 26, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Marcelo Alberto Bielsa in Rosario, Provincia de Santa Fe.