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Lanus vs Newells Old Boys — Liga Profesional Argentina 2018

Lanus
Lanus
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Newells Old Boys
Newells Old Boys
5/21/2023Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · Round 17Estadio Ciudad de Lanús - Néstor Díaz Pérez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

Lanus47%
×Draw27%
Newells Old Boys26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lanus
1.40
Newells Old Boys
0.95

Lanus creates 47% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 120 away

creates per match

Lanus
1.34
Newells Old Boys
0.91

allows per match

Lanus
0.99
Newells Old Boys
1.45

finishing

Lanus+0.00on par
Newells Old Boys+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lanus ↓

Newells Old Boys →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Lanus or draw
74%
Lanus or Newells Old Boys
73%
Draw or Newells Old Boys
53%

Winning margin

Lanus wins by 2+
23%
Newells Old Boys wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Lanus 1+ goals
75%
Lanus 2+ goals
41%
Lanus 3+ goals
17%
Newells Old Boys 1+ goals
61%
Newells Old Boys 2+ goals
25%
Newells Old Boys 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Lanus (draw refunded)
65%
Newells Old Boys (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lanus at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.99 · 120 matches

Newells Old Boys away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.45 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lanus attack 1.34 + Newells Old Boys defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.40

Newells Old Boys attack 0.91 + Lanus defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Lanus scores more
47%
level
27%
Newells Old Boys scores more
26%

Lanus at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Lanus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lanus vs Newells Old Boys

Lanus beat Newells Old Boys 1-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on May 21, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Lanús - Néstor Díaz Pérez in Lanús, Provincia de Buenos Aires.