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Lanus vs Newells Old Boys — League #1032 2026

Lanus
Lanus
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Newells Old Boys
Newells Old Boys
1/31/2024League #1032League #1032 · 1st Phase - 2Estadio Ciudad de Lanús - Néstor Díaz Pérez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Lanus19%
×Draw23%
Newells Old Boys58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lanus
0.94
Newells Old Boys
1.81

Newells Old Boys creates 93% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

creates per match

Lanus
1.13
Newells Old Boys
2.25

allows per match

Lanus
1.38
Newells Old Boys
0.75

finishing

Lanus+0.00on par
Newells Old Boys+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lanus ↓

Newells Old Boys →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–112%
0–211%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Lanus or draw
42%
Lanus or Newells Old Boys
77%
Draw or Newells Old Boys
81%

Winning margin

Lanus wins by 2+
7%
Newells Old Boys wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Lanus 1+ goals
61%
Lanus 2+ goals
24%
Lanus 3+ goals
7%
Newells Old Boys 1+ goals
84%
Newells Old Boys 2+ goals
54%
Newells Old Boys 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Lanus (draw refunded)
25%
Newells Old Boys (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lanus at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Newells Old Boys away — creates 2.25, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lanus attack 1.13 + Newells Old Boys defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.94

Newells Old Boys attack 2.25 + Lanus defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Lanus scores more
19%
level
23%
Newells Old Boys scores more
58%

Newells Old Boys at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Newells Old Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #1032: Lanus 0–2 Newells Old Boys

Newells Old Boys beat Lanus 2-0 in League #1032 on January 31, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Lanús - Néstor Díaz Pérez in Lanús, Provincia de Buenos Aires.