ODD Ballklubb 2–2 Viking: Result & Stats

ODD Ballklubb

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Viking

O. Occéan 78'

F. Semb Berge 53'

P. Pedersen 90'

A. Ibrahim 40'

7/24/2016

Eliteserien · Round 17Skagerak Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

ODD Ballklubb28%

×Draw24%

Viking48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ODD BallklubbExpected goals in this matchViking

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.65

ODD Ballklubb

1.20

Viking

1.65

Viking creates 38% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 25 away

1.35

creates per match

1.74

1.55

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

ODD Ballklubb

1.35

Viking

1.74

allows per match

ODD Ballklubb

1.55

Viking

1.05

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

+0.26scores more than expected

finishing

ODD Ballklubb+0.10scores more

Viking+0.26scores more

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ODD Ballklubb ↓

Viking →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

ODD Ballklubb or draw

52%

ODD Ballklubb or Viking

76%

Draw or Viking

72%

Winning margin

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+

11%

Viking wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals

70%

ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals

34%

ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals

12%

Viking 1+ goals

81%

Viking 2+ goals

49%

Viking 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)

37%

Viking (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ODD Ballklubb at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.55 · 20 matches

Viking away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.05 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ODD Ballklubb attack 1.35 + Viking defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.20

Viking attack 1.74 + ODD Ballklubb defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

ODD Ballklubb scores more

28%

level

24%

Viking scores more

48%

Viking at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Viking will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

A. Ibrahim

Viking · M

7.8

Match Events

40'

A. Ibrahim↳ M. Bringaker

53'

F. Semb Berge↳ R. Zekhnini

55'

C. Akabueze← Riku Riski

59'

O. Berg← J. Samuelsen

71'

P. Pedersen← M. Bringaker

78'

O. Occéan↳ T. Grøgaard

79'

Michael Haukas

82'

J. Nilsen← F. Nordkvelle

83'

T. Aasheim← C. Kronberg

90'

P. Pedersen↳ A. Ibrahim

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ODDViking

Overview

57%Possession43%

12Total Shots15

7Corners4

6Fouls8

Shots

12Total Shots15

6On Target4

4Off Target7

2Blocked4

8Inside Box9

4Outside Box6

Passing

57%Possession43%

433Total Passes318

354Accurate Passes254

82%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

6Fouls8

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

4Offsides1