Nevėžis 1–0 BFA: Result & Stats | 1 Lyga

Nevėžis

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

BFA

M. Traore 22'

6/21/2025

1 Lyga · Round 14Kedainiai Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Nevėžis54%

×Draw22%

BFA24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NevėžisExpected goals in this matchBFA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

1.21

Nevėžis

1.95

BFA

1.21

Nevėžis creates 61% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 102 away

1.86

creates per match

1.34

1.08

allows per match

2.04

creates per match

Nevėžis

1.86

BFA

1.34

allows per match

Nevėžis

1.08

BFA

2.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nevėžis+0.00on par

BFA+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nevėžis ↓

BFA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Nevėžis or draw

76%

Nevėžis or BFA

78%

Draw or BFA

46%

Winning margin

Nevėžis wins by 2+

32%

BFA wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Nevėžis 1+ goals

86%

Nevėžis 2+ goals

58%

Nevėžis 3+ goals

31%

BFA 1+ goals

70%

BFA 2+ goals

34%

BFA 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Nevėžis (draw refunded)

70%

BFA (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nevėžis at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.08 · 97 matches

BFA away — creates 1.34, concedes 2.04 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nevėžis attack 1.86 + BFA defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.95

BFA attack 1.34 + Nevėžis defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Nevėžis scores more

54%

level

22%

BFA scores more

24%

Nevėžis at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Nevėžis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

M. Traore

43'

M. Traore

46'

M. Perveinis← K. Urbanavicius

48'

A. Kezunas

52'

M. Petkevicius

64'

Y. Mohil← L. Berednikovas

67'

Z. Jurevicius← A. Osipovic

71'

I. Tymoshenko

86'

N. Martinkus← M. Petkevicius

90+3'

V. Ferraz← M. Traore

Nevėžis

BFA

76

Semaska

4

Kezunas

5

Petrauska

10

▼

Osipovic

11

Novikovas

22

▼

23

24

48

66

89

34

2

5

8

13

▼

Beredniko

18

Tymoshenk

20

⚽

▼

Traore

22

Lukosevic

35

Zuperka

91

▼

Petkevici

99

Rukuiza

Manager: E. Biečius

64'▲Y. Mohil←▼L. Berednikovas

86'▲N. Martinkus←▼M. Petkevicius

90+3'▲V. Ferraz←▼M. Traore

Nevėžis substitutes

1Urbonas3Martinkus7Ferraz10Toklikishvili11Mohil14Mezinis25Gaizutis37Petkevicius

Manager: H. Šidlauskas

46'▲M. Perveinis←▼K. Urbanavicius

67'▲Z. Jurevicius←▼A. Osipovic

BFA substitutes

12Ramanauskas7Miranda9Perveinis53Vilkuotis77Jurevicius90Cesnauskis

1 Lyga: Nevėžis 1–0 BFA

Nevėžis beat BFA 1-0 in 1 Lyga on June 21, 2025.

Goals: M. Traore (22').

The match was played at Kedainiai Stadium in Kedainiai.

Nevėžis vs BFA — 1 Lyga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

1 Lyga: Nevėžis 1–0 BFA