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BFA vs Nevėžis — 1 Lyga 2026

BFA
BFA
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Nevėžis
Nevėžis
A. Osipovic 44' (pen)
N. Garbaliauskas 18'
V. Skibiniauskas 8'
4/13/20241 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 6BFA Maniežas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

BFA36%
×Draw24%
Nevėžis41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BFA
1.52
Nevėžis
1.64

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 101 home / 94 away

creates per match

BFA
1.70
Nevėžis
1.76

allows per match

BFA
1.51
Nevėžis
1.33

finishing

BFA+0.00on par
Nevėžis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 61Under: 3961%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 63No: 3763%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BFA ↓

Nevėžis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

BFA or draw
59%
BFA or Nevėžis
76%
Draw or Nevėžis
64%

Winning margin

BFA wins by 2+
17%
Nevėžis wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

BFA 1+ goals
78%
BFA 2+ goals
45%
BFA 3+ goals
20%
Nevėžis 1+ goals
81%
Nevėžis 2+ goals
49%
Nevėžis 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

BFA (draw refunded)
47%
Nevėžis (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BFA at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.51 · 101 matches

Nevėžis away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.33 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BFA attack 1.70 + Nevėžis defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.52

Nevėžis attack 1.76 + BFA defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

BFA scores more
36%
level
24%
Nevėžis scores more
41%

Nevėžis at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Nevėžis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
V. Skibiniauskas
11'
K. Rukuiza
18'
N. Garbaliauskas
25'
A. Osipovic
43'
A. Lukosevicius
44'
A. OsipovicPenalty
46'
A. Slobodian← A. Slobodian
56'
U. Avizovas← U. Avizovas
61'
M. Cizas
64'
F. Yaghr← F. Yaghr
70'
U. Avizovas
71'
P. Harapko← P. Harapko
73'
P. Pranckus
73'
A. Indriulis← A. Indriulis
81'
N. Benevicius← N. Benevicius
81'
R. Vilkuotis← R. Vilkuotis
86'
A. Indriulis
90'
H. Yamada

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: BFA vs Nevėžis

BFA beat Nevėžis 2-1 in 1 Lyga on April 13, 2024.

Goals: V. Skibiniauskas (8'), N. Garbaliauskas (18'), A. Osipovic (44' pen).

The match was played at BFA Maniežas in Vilnius.