BFA 2–0 Nevėžis: Result & Stats | 1 Lyga

BFA

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Nevėžis

A. Osipovic 90'

Z. Jurevicius 84'

10/31/2025

1 Lyga · Round 29Sirvintu stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

BFA36%

×Draw24%

Nevėžis41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BFAExpected goals in this matchNevėžis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.64

BFA

1.52

Nevėžis

1.64

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 101 home / 94 away

1.70

creates per match

1.76

1.51

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

BFA

1.70

Nevėžis

1.76

allows per match

BFA

1.51

Nevėžis

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BFA+0.00on par

Nevėžis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BFA ↓

Nevėžis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

BFA or draw

59%

BFA or Nevėžis

76%

Draw or Nevėžis

64%

Winning margin

BFA wins by 2+

17%

Nevėžis wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

BFA 1+ goals

78%

BFA 2+ goals

45%

BFA 3+ goals

20%

Nevėžis 1+ goals

81%

Nevėžis 2+ goals

49%

Nevėžis 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

BFA (draw refunded)

47%

Nevėžis (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BFA at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.51 · 101 matches

Nevėžis away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.33 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BFA attack 1.70 + Nevėžis defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.52

Nevėžis attack 1.76 + BFA defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

BFA scores more

36%

level

24%

Nevėžis scores more

41%

Nevėžis at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Nevėžis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

D. Misiunas← R. Vilkuotis

49'

52'

56'

56'

62'

62'

A. Kezunas←

71'

L. Berednikovas

72'

Z. Jurevicius

73'

E. Mockus← R. Lipnevicius

80'

B. Bekima← Y. Mohil

84'

Z. Jurevicius

90+3'

Y. Haleida

90'

K. Urbanavicius← M. Perveinis

90'

A. Osipovic

BFA

Nevėžis

34

Granauska

4

Soroka

11

▼

Mohil

13

Beredniko

17

Skibiniau

21

▼

30

32

35

47

91

76

3

5

9

▼

Perveinis

10

⚽

Osipovic

20

Levsinas

48

Sidlauska

53

▼

Vilkuotis

66

Pranckus

77

⚽

Jureviciu

89

Paulikas

Manager: H. Šidlauskas

15'▲D. Misiunas←▼R. Vilkuotis

62'▲A. Kezunas←▼—

90'▲K. Urbanavicius←▼M. Perveinis

BFA substitutes

12Ramanauskas55Garsva2Sauklys4Kezunas15Yakymenko16Lukashevych22Urbanavicius24Misiunas34Tomulevicius44Chachlauskas74Indriulis75Valickis

Manager: E. Biečius

73'▲E. Mockus←▼R. Lipnevicius

80'▲B. Bekima←▼Y. Mohil

Nevėžis substitutes

1Urbonas12Manasyan2Mockus3Martinkus8Mikuckis9Bekima14Mezinis25Gaizutis28Lozano

1 Lyga: BFA 2–0 Nevėžis

BFA beat Nevėžis 2-0 in 1 Lyga on October 31, 2025.

Goals: Z. Jurevicius (84'), A. Osipovic (90').

The match was played at Sirvintu stadionas in Sirvintos.

BFA vs Nevėžis — 1 Lyga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

1 Lyga: BFA 2–0 Nevėžis