Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Neuchatel Xamax FC vs FC Thun — Schweizer Cup 2019

Neuchatel Xamax FC
Neuchatel Xamax FC
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
FC Thun
FC Thun
9/16/2022Schweizer CupSchweizer Cup · 2nd RoundStade de la Maladière

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Neuchatel Xamax FC6%
×Draw13%
FC Thun81%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neuchatel Xamax FC
0.55
FC Thun
2.63

FC Thun creates 378% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

creates per match

Neuchatel Xamax FC
0.60
FC Thun
3.25

allows per match

Neuchatel Xamax FC
2.00
FC Thun
0.50

finishing

Neuchatel Xamax FC+0.00on par
FC Thun+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neuchatel Xamax FC ↓

FC Thun →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–111%
0–215%
0–313%
0–48%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–22%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (15%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Neuchatel Xamax FC or draw
19%
Neuchatel Xamax FC or FC Thun
87%
Draw or FC Thun
94%

Winning margin

Neuchatel Xamax FC wins by 2+
1%
FC Thun wins by 2+
60%

Team goals

Neuchatel Xamax FC 1+ goals
42%
Neuchatel Xamax FC 2+ goals
11%
Neuchatel Xamax FC 3+ goals
2%
FC Thun 1+ goals
93%
FC Thun 2+ goals
73%
FC Thun 3+ goals
48%

Draw no bet

Neuchatel Xamax FC (draw refunded)
7%
FC Thun (draw refunded)
93%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neuchatel Xamax FC at home — creates 0.60, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

FC Thun away — creates 3.25, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neuchatel Xamax FC attack 0.60 + FC Thun defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.55

FC Thun attack 3.25 + Neuchatel Xamax FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Neuchatel Xamax FC scores more
6%
level
13%
FC Thun scores more
81%

FC Thun at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "FC Thun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Schweizer Cup: Neuchatel Xamax FC 1–2 FC Thun

FC Thun beat Neuchatel Xamax FC 2-1 in Schweizer Cup on September 16, 2022.

The match was played at Stade de la Maladière in Neuchâtel.