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Neuchatel Xamax FC vs FC Thun — Super League 2018

Neuchatel Xamax FC
Neuchatel Xamax FC
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
FC Thun
FC Thun
11/9/2019Super LeagueSuper League · Round 14Stade de la Maladière

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Neuchatel Xamax FC34%
×Draw23%
FC Thun43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.50
FC Thun
1.72

FC Thun creates 15% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 53 away

creates per match

Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.20
FC Thun
1.64

allows per match

Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.80
FC Thun
1.79

finishing

Neuchatel Xamax FC+0.00on par
FC Thun+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neuchatel Xamax FC ↓

FC Thun →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Neuchatel Xamax FC or draw
57%
Neuchatel Xamax FC or FC Thun
77%
Draw or FC Thun
66%

Winning margin

Neuchatel Xamax FC wins by 2+
16%
FC Thun wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Neuchatel Xamax FC 1+ goals
78%
Neuchatel Xamax FC 2+ goals
44%
Neuchatel Xamax FC 3+ goals
19%
FC Thun 1+ goals
82%
FC Thun 2+ goals
51%
FC Thun 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Neuchatel Xamax FC (draw refunded)
44%
FC Thun (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neuchatel Xamax FC at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.80 · 30 matches

FC Thun away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.79 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neuchatel Xamax FC attack 1.20 + FC Thun defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.50

FC Thun attack 1.64 + Neuchatel Xamax FC defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Neuchatel Xamax FC scores more
34%
level
23%
FC Thun scores more
43%

FC Thun at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "FC Thun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Neuchatel Xamax FC 2–3 FC Thun

FC Thun beat Neuchatel Xamax FC 3-2 in Super League on November 9, 2019.

The match was played at Stade de la Maladière in Neuchâtel.