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FC Thun vs Neuchatel Xamax FC — Friendlies Clubs 2026

FC Thun
FC Thun
FT
6 – 2
HT: 5 – 1
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Neuchatel Xamax FC
7/4/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

FC Thun62%
×Draw18%
Neuchatel Xamax FC20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Thun
2.65
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.45

FC Thun creates 83% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

creates per match

FC Thun
2.75
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.73

allows per match

FC Thun
1.17
Neuchatel Xamax FC
2.55

finishing

FC Thun+0.00on par
Neuchatel Xamax FC+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Thun ↓

Neuchatel Xamax FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

FC Thun or draw
80%
FC Thun or Neuchatel Xamax FC
82%
Draw or Neuchatel Xamax FC
38%

Winning margin

FC Thun wins by 2+
42%
Neuchatel Xamax FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

FC Thun 1+ goals
93%
FC Thun 2+ goals
74%
FC Thun 3+ goals
48%
Neuchatel Xamax FC 1+ goals
77%
Neuchatel Xamax FC 2+ goals
42%
Neuchatel Xamax FC 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

FC Thun (draw refunded)
76%
Neuchatel Xamax FC (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Thun at home — creates 2.75, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

Neuchatel Xamax FC away — creates 1.73, concedes 2.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Thun attack 2.75 + Neuchatel Xamax FC defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 2.65

Neuchatel Xamax FC attack 1.73 + FC Thun defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

FC Thun scores more
62%
level
18%
Neuchatel Xamax FC scores more
20%

FC Thun at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "FC Thun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

FC
Neuchatel
Luca Privitelli Gian
Manager: Luca Privitelli Gian
Anthony Braizat
Manager: Anthony Braizat

Friendlies Clubs: FC Thun 6–2 Neuchatel Xamax FC

FC Thun beat Neuchatel Xamax FC 6-2 in Friendlies Clubs on July 4, 2026.