Nesebar 0–1 Botev Plovdiv II: Result & Stats

Nesebar

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Botev Plovdiv II

11/9/2024

Second League · Round 16Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Nesebar50%

×Draw26%

Botev Plovdiv II24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NesebarExpected goals in this matchBotev Plovdiv II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

0.95

Nesebar

1.51

Botev Plovdiv II

0.95

Nesebar creates 59% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 54 away

1.09

creates per match

0.52

1.38

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Nesebar

1.09

Botev Plovdiv II

0.52

allows per match

Nesebar

1.38

Botev Plovdiv II

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nesebar+0.00on par

Botev Plovdiv II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nesebar ↓

Botev Plovdiv II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Nesebar or draw

76%

Nesebar or Botev Plovdiv II

74%

Draw or Botev Plovdiv II

50%

Winning margin

Nesebar wins by 2+

26%

Botev Plovdiv II wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Nesebar 1+ goals

78%

Nesebar 2+ goals

44%

Nesebar 3+ goals

19%

Botev Plovdiv II 1+ goals

61%

Botev Plovdiv II 2+ goals

25%

Botev Plovdiv II 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Nesebar (draw refunded)

68%

Botev Plovdiv II (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nesebar at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.38 · 34 matches

Botev Plovdiv II away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.93 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nesebar attack 1.09 + Botev Plovdiv II defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.51

Botev Plovdiv II attack 0.52 + Nesebar defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Nesebar scores more

50%

level

26%

Botev Plovdiv II scores more

24%

Nesebar at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Nesebar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff