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Botev Plovdiv II vs Nesebar — Second League 2018

Botev Plovdiv II
Botev Plovdiv II
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Nesebar
Nesebar
5/8/2025Second LeagueSecond League · Round 35Nikola Shterev-Starika Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Botev Plovdiv II52%
×Draw25%
Nesebar23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botev Plovdiv II
1.58
Nesebar
0.95

Botev Plovdiv II creates 66% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 34 away

creates per match

Botev Plovdiv II
1.20
Nesebar
0.71

allows per match

Botev Plovdiv II
1.20
Nesebar
1.97

finishing

Botev Plovdiv II+0.00on par
Nesebar+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Plovdiv II ↓

Nesebar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Botev Plovdiv II or draw
77%
Botev Plovdiv II or Nesebar
75%
Draw or Nesebar
48%

Winning margin

Botev Plovdiv II wins by 2+
27%
Nesebar wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Botev Plovdiv II 1+ goals
79%
Botev Plovdiv II 2+ goals
47%
Botev Plovdiv II 3+ goals
21%
Nesebar 1+ goals
61%
Nesebar 2+ goals
25%
Nesebar 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Botev Plovdiv II (draw refunded)
70%
Nesebar (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Plovdiv II at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 55 matches

Nesebar away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.97 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Plovdiv II attack 1.20 + Nesebar defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.58

Nesebar attack 0.71 + Botev Plovdiv II defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Botev Plovdiv II scores more
52%
level
25%
Nesebar scores more
23%

Botev Plovdiv II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Botev Plovdiv II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Botev Plovdiv II vs Nesebar

Nesebar beat Botev Plovdiv II 2-0 in Second League on May 8, 2025.

The match was played at Nikola Shterev-Starika Complex in Plovdiv.