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Botev Plovdiv II vs Nesebar — Third League - Southeast 2018

Botev Plovdiv II
Botev Plovdiv II
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Nesebar
Nesebar
2/18/2024Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 20Nikola Shterev-Starika Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Botev Plovdiv II51%
×Draw21%
Nesebar28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botev Plovdiv II
2.17
Nesebar
1.59

Botev Plovdiv II creates 36% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 99 away

creates per match

Botev Plovdiv II
2.95
Nesebar
1.55

allows per match

Botev Plovdiv II
1.63
Nesebar
1.38

finishing

Botev Plovdiv II+0.00on par
Nesebar+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Plovdiv II ↓

Nesebar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Botev Plovdiv II or draw
72%
Botev Plovdiv II or Nesebar
79%
Draw or Nesebar
49%

Winning margin

Botev Plovdiv II wins by 2+
30%
Nesebar wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Botev Plovdiv II 1+ goals
89%
Botev Plovdiv II 2+ goals
64%
Botev Plovdiv II 3+ goals
36%
Nesebar 1+ goals
80%
Nesebar 2+ goals
47%
Nesebar 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Botev Plovdiv II (draw refunded)
64%
Nesebar (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Plovdiv II at home — creates 2.95, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

Nesebar away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.38 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Plovdiv II attack 2.95 + Nesebar defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 2.17

Nesebar attack 1.55 + Botev Plovdiv II defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Botev Plovdiv II scores more
51%
level
21%
Nesebar scores more
28%

Botev Plovdiv II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Botev Plovdiv II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Botev Plovdiv II vs Nesebar

Nesebar beat Botev Plovdiv II 3-1 in Third League - Southeast on February 18, 2024.

The match was played at Nikola Shterev-Starika Complex in Plovdiv.