NEC Nijmegen 1–1 Almere City FC: Result & Stats

NEC Nijmegen

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Almere City FC

M. Mattsson 69'

Y. Kitala 35'

10/21/2023

Eredivisie · Round 9Goffertstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

NEC Nijmegen52%

×Draw24%

Almere City FC24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NEC NijmegenExpected goals in this matchAlmere City FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.10

NEC Nijmegen

1.72

Almere City FC

1.10

NEC Nijmegen creates 56% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 12 away

1.84

creates per match

0.86

1.35

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

NEC Nijmegen

1.84

Almere City FC

0.86

allows per match

NEC Nijmegen

1.35

Almere City FC

1.60

+0.32scores more than expected

finishing

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

NEC Nijmegen+0.32scores more

Almere City FC-0.11scores less

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NEC Nijmegen ↓

Almere City FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

NEC Nijmegen or draw

76%

NEC Nijmegen or Almere City FC

76%

Draw or Almere City FC

48%

Winning margin

NEC Nijmegen wins by 2+

28%

Almere City FC wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

NEC Nijmegen 1+ goals

82%

NEC Nijmegen 2+ goals

51%

NEC Nijmegen 3+ goals

25%

Almere City FC 1+ goals

67%

Almere City FC 2+ goals

30%

Almere City FC 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

NEC Nijmegen (draw refunded)

68%

Almere City FC (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NEC Nijmegen at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.35 · 38 matches

Almere City FC away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.60 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NEC Nijmegen attack 1.84 + Almere City FC defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.72

Almere City FC attack 0.86 + NEC Nijmegen defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

NEC Nijmegen scores more

52%

level

24%

Almere City FC scores more

24%

NEC Nijmegen at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "NEC Nijmegen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

M. Mattsson

NEC Nijmegen · M

8.5

Match Events

20'

Peer Koopmeiners

26'

Bart van Rooij

35'

Y. Kitala↳ P. Koopmeiners

57'

67'

69'

73'

73'

75'

76'

76'

C. Mamengi← T. Barbet

81'

Y. Cathline← Manel Royo

82'

K. Hansen← Y. Kitala

88'

J. Jacobs← J. Ritmeester van de Kamp

88'

L. Duijvestijn← R. van La Parra

90+3'

Kornelius Hansen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NECAlmere

Overview

55%Possession45%

12Total Shots14

1.25Expected Goals (xG)0.88

6Corners5

11Fouls19

Shots

12Total Shots14

4On Target2

4Off Target6

4Blocked6

9Inside Box8

3Outside Box6

Passing

55%Possession45%

454Total Passes368

319Accurate Passes240

70%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls19

2Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

1Offsides0

Match Recap: NEC Nijmegen vs Almere City FC

NEC Nijmegen and Almere City FC drew 1-1 in Eredivisie on October 21, 2023.

Goals: Y. Kitala (35'), M. Mattsson (69').

NEC Nijmegen controlled possession (55%) and registered 12 shots to 14.

The match was played at Goffertstadion in Nijmegen.

NEC Nijmegen vs Almere City FC — Eredivisie 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: NEC Nijmegen vs Almere City FC