Almere City FC 1–4 NEC Nijmegen: Result & Stats

Almere City FC

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

NEC Nijmegen

R. van La Parra 19'

T. Chery 80'

K. Ogawa 63'

D. Proper 45+2'

K. Sano 32'

5/19/2024

Eredivisie · Round 34Yanmar Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Almere City FC28%

×Draw24%

NEC Nijmegen49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Almere City FCExpected goals in this matchNEC Nijmegen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.75

Almere City FC

1.27

NEC Nijmegen

1.75

NEC Nijmegen creates 38% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 32 away

0.91

creates per match

1.35

2.15

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Almere City FC

0.91

NEC Nijmegen

1.35

allows per match

Almere City FC

2.15

NEC Nijmegen

1.62

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

Almere City FC-0.16scores less

NEC Nijmegen+0.18scores more

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almere City FC ↓

NEC Nijmegen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Almere City FC or draw

51%

Almere City FC or NEC Nijmegen

76%

Draw or NEC Nijmegen

72%

Winning margin

Almere City FC wins by 2+

12%

NEC Nijmegen wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Almere City FC 1+ goals

72%

Almere City FC 2+ goals

36%

Almere City FC 3+ goals

14%

NEC Nijmegen 1+ goals

83%

NEC Nijmegen 2+ goals

52%

NEC Nijmegen 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Almere City FC (draw refunded)

36%

NEC Nijmegen (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almere City FC at home — creates 0.91, concedes 2.15 · 8 matches

NEC Nijmegen away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.62 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almere City FC attack 0.91 + NEC Nijmegen defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.27

NEC Nijmegen attack 1.35 + Almere City FC defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Almere City FC scores more

28%

level

24%

NEC Nijmegen scores more

49%

NEC Nijmegen at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "NEC Nijmegen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

T. Chery

NEC Nijmegen · M

9.7

Match Events

19'

R. van La Parra

21'

Stije Resink

32'

K. Sano↳ T. Chery

45+2'

D. Proper↳ T. Chery

46'

T. Barbet← Álvaro Peña

46'

S. Sow← S. Hansen

59'

J. van Duiven← R. van La Parra

63'

K. Ogawa

68'

F. Mattoir← J. Ritmeester van de Kamp

71'

L. Schöne← D. Proper

80'

T. Chery↳ S. Sow

81'

L. Mbe Soh← S. Floranus

82'

D. Post← S. Resink

83'

N. Rossen← M. Hoedemakers

83'

L. Olden Larsen← K. Ogawa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlmereNEC

Overview

46%Possession54%

15Total Shots20

1.04Expected Goals (xG)3.12

6Corners7

13Fouls9

Shots

15Total Shots20

4On Target11

5Off Target4

6Blocked5

10Inside Box16

5Outside Box4

Passing

46%Possession54%

363Total Passes437

268Accurate Passes343

74%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

6Saves3

0.17Goals Prevented0.17

Discipline

13Fouls9

1Yellow Cards0