Almere City FC vs NEC Nijmegen — Eredivisie 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 9+ matches
Almere City FC29%
NEC Nijmegen47%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
NEC Nijmegen creates 31% more chances
Season form · 9 home / 34 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over59
- Under41
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes60
- No40
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Almere City FC ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Almere City FC at home — creates 0.92, concedes 2.13 · 9 matches
NEC Nijmegen away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.72 · 34 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Almere City FC attack 0.92 + NEC Nijmegen defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.32
NEC Nijmegen attack 1.34 + Almere City FC defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.73
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 47%?"
NEC Nijmegen at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 47% does not mean "NEC Nijmegen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Almere City FC substitutes
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
PSV Eindhoven
Feyenoord
AjaxNEC Nijmegen
Twente
Utrecht
AZ Alkmaar
Heerenveen
Groningen
Sparta Rotterdam
Fortuna Sittard
GO Ahead Eagles
Excelsior
Telstar
PEC Zwolle
FC Volendam
NAC Breda
HeraclesIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Almere City FC host NEC Nijmegen on Friday, 25 October 2024 at 18:00. The match is part of the Eredivisie 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Almere City FC vs NEC Nijmegen
Almere City FC beat NEC Nijmegen 1-0 in Eredivisie on October 25, 2024.
Goals: T. Ouwejan (79' o.g.).
NEC Nijmegen controlled possession (53%) and registered 15 shots to 11.
The match was played at Yanmar Stadion in Almere.