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Nea Salamis vs Doxa — Cup 2019

Nea Salamis
Nea Salamis
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Doxa
Doxa
10/2/2024CupCup · 1st RoundStadio Vitex Ammochostos Epistrofi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Nea Salamis50%
×Draw21%
Doxa28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nea Salamis
2.05
Doxa
1.50

Nea Salamis creates 37% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

creates per match

Nea Salamis
2.11
Doxa
1.88

allows per match

Nea Salamis
1.11
Doxa
2.00

finishing

Nea Salamis+0.00on par
Doxa+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nea Salamis ↓

Doxa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Nea Salamis or draw
72%
Nea Salamis or Doxa
79%
Draw or Doxa
50%

Winning margin

Nea Salamis wins by 2+
29%
Doxa wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Nea Salamis 1+ goals
87%
Nea Salamis 2+ goals
61%
Nea Salamis 3+ goals
33%
Doxa 1+ goals
78%
Doxa 2+ goals
44%
Doxa 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Nea Salamis (draw refunded)
64%
Doxa (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nea Salamis at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Doxa away — creates 1.88, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nea Salamis attack 2.11 + Doxa defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.05

Doxa attack 1.88 + Nea Salamis defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Nea Salamis scores more
50%
level
21%
Doxa scores more
28%

Nea Salamis at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Nea Salamis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nea Salamis vs Doxa

Nea Salamis beat Doxa 1-0 in Cup on October 2, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Vitex Ammochostos Epistrofi in Larnaca.