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Doxa vs Nea Salamis — 1. Division 2019

Doxa
Doxa
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Nea Salamis
Nea Salamis
2/11/20241. Division1. Division · Round 24Stadio Peristerona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Doxa34%
×Draw27%
Nea Salamis39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Doxa
1.17
Nea Salamis
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 88 home / 88 away

creates per match

Doxa
0.84
Nea Salamis
1.11

allows per match

Doxa
1.45
Nea Salamis
1.50

finishing

Doxa+0.00on par
Nea Salamis+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Doxa ↓

Nea Salamis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Doxa or draw
61%
Doxa or Nea Salamis
73%
Draw or Nea Salamis
66%

Winning margin

Doxa wins by 2+
14%
Nea Salamis wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Doxa 1+ goals
69%
Doxa 2+ goals
33%
Doxa 3+ goals
11%
Nea Salamis 1+ goals
72%
Nea Salamis 2+ goals
37%
Nea Salamis 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Doxa (draw refunded)
46%
Nea Salamis (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Doxa at home — creates 0.84, concedes 1.45 · 88 matches

Nea Salamis away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.50 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Doxa attack 0.84 + Nea Salamis defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.17

Nea Salamis attack 1.11 + Doxa defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Doxa scores more
34%
level
27%
Nea Salamis scores more
39%

Nea Salamis at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Nea Salamis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Doxa 0–3 Nea Salamis

Nea Salamis beat Doxa 3-0 in 1. Division on February 11, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Peristerona in Peristerona.