Nea Salamis 0–1 Doxa: Result & Stats | 1. Division

Nea Salamis

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Doxa

3/7/2024

1. Division · Relegation Round - 3Stadio Vitex Ammochostos Epistrofi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Nea Salamis40%

×Draw26%

Doxa34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nea SalamisExpected goals in this matchDoxa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.28

Nea Salamis

1.40

Doxa

1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 88 home / 87 away

1.26

creates per match

0.92

1.65

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Nea Salamis

1.26

Doxa

0.92

allows per match

Nea Salamis

1.65

Doxa

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nea Salamis+0.00on par

Doxa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nea Salamis ↓

Doxa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Nea Salamis or draw

66%

Nea Salamis or Doxa

74%

Draw or Doxa

60%

Winning margin

Nea Salamis wins by 2+

19%

Doxa wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Nea Salamis 1+ goals

75%

Nea Salamis 2+ goals

41%

Nea Salamis 3+ goals

17%

Doxa 1+ goals

72%

Doxa 2+ goals

37%

Doxa 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Nea Salamis (draw refunded)

54%

Doxa (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nea Salamis at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.65 · 88 matches

Doxa away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.54 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nea Salamis attack 1.26 + Doxa defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.40

Doxa attack 0.92 + Nea Salamis defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Nea Salamis scores more

40%

level

26%

Doxa scores more

34%

Nea Salamis at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Nea Salamis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff